The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | August 3rd, 2022

Risk management has reduced vulnerability to floods and droughts globally, yet their impacts are still increasing. An improved understanding of the causes of changing imp

Risk management has reduced vulnerability to floods and droughts globally, yet their impacts are still increasing. An improved understanding of the causes of changing impacts is therefore needed, but has been hampered by a lack of empirical data. On the basis of a global dataset of 45 pairs of events that occurred within the same area, we show that risk management generally reduces the impacts of floods and droughts but faces difficulties in reducing the impacts of unprecedented events of a magnitude not previously experienced. If the second event was much more hazardous than the first, its impact was almost always higher. This is because management was not designed to deal with such extreme events: for example, they exceeded the design levels of levees and reservoirs. In two success stories, the impact of the second, more hazardous, event was lower, as a result of improved risk management governance and high investment in integrated management. The observed difficulty of managing unprecedented events is alarming, given that more extreme hydrological events are projected owing to climate change.

The Changing Nature of Atmospheric Rivers

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | March 15th, 2025

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are expected to strengthen in a warming climate, largely due to the thermodynamic (moistening) effect. Here, we show that this trend is already e

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are expected to strengthen in a warming climate, largely due to the thermodynamic (moistening) effect. Here, we show that this trend is already evident in historical reanalysis data using the AR Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP) tier 2 AR detection tools (ARDTs) and variants of our own global AR detection applied to ERA5, MERRA-2, and JRA-55 reanalysis data. Over the 1980–2019 (ARTMIP) and 1980–2023 (variants) periods, total AR area increased by 6%–9%. AR integrated water vapor (IWV) increased by 1.5%–2.5% while integrated vapor transport (IVT) increased by less than 1% and 850-hPa wind speed (|V850|) and vertically integrated moisture flux convergence (VIMFC) both decreased. IWV increases were the most robust overall. All trend magnitudes were sensitive to subsetting, with fixed-frequency subsets consisting of the most intense AR grid points showing larger increases of 3%–4% IVT, 4%–6% IWV, and 6%–10% VIMFC, this last opposing a decreasing AR-mean VIMFC trend likely associated with large area increases. For individual ARs, maximum IVT and IWV increased at ;3–63 and ;1.5–23 the rate of AR-mean values, respectively. Regional changes were often even larger, particularly for extreme events, though most geospatial trends had low detectability under a false discovery rate control framework. Ultimately, despite considerable ARDT and methodological diversity, we found robust consensus moistening and expansion of ARs between 1980 and 2023. However, further research is required to determine the extent to which these trends are affected by reanalysis observational assimilation changes. For example, previous studies indicate that certain reanalyses misrepresent 1980–94 atmospheric moistening and so may underestimate historical AR expansion and intensification rates.

The Climate has Changed: Now what? Integrated Regional Water Management and Climate Change Planning A Coincidental or Inevitable Union?

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | March 27th, 2012

Adapting California’s water management systems in response to climate   change presents one of the most significant challenges for the 21st century. In the course of

Adapting California’s water management systems in response to climate   change presents one of the most significant challenges for the 21st century. In the course of the past five years, the California Department of Water Resources has taken an active role in both identifying opportunities to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and in positioning California to adapt to changes happening now and in the future. The recent publication of the Climate Change Handbook for Regional Water Planning is the most recent effort to bring together two separate water planning efforts – integrated regional water management and climate change mitigation and adaptation. The key to this planning synthesis is a significant change in the way water planners have addressed issues of water management. This paper looks at the development of integrated regional water management and climate change planning by the CDWR and their current union in the Handbook.

The Collapse of Pelagic Fishes in the Upper San Francisco Estuary: El Colapso de los Peces Pelagicos en La Cabecera Del Estuario San Francisco

American Fisheries Society (AFS) | January 9th, 2007

Although the pelagic fish community of the upper San Francisco Estuary historically has shown substantial variability, a recent collapse has captured the attention of res

Although the pelagic fish community of the upper San Francisco Estuary historically has shown substantial variability, a recent collapse has captured the attention of resource managers, scientists, legislators, and the general public. The ecological and management consequences of the decline are most serious for delta smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus), a threatened species whose narrow range overlaps with large water diversions that supply water to over 25 million people. The decline occurred despite recent moderate hydrology, which typically results in at least modest recruitment, and investments of hundreds of millions of dollars in habitat restoration and environmental water allocations to support native fishes. In response to the pelagic fish collapse, an ambitious multi-agency research team has been working since 2005 to evaluate the causes of the decline, which likely include a combination of factors: stock-recruitment effects, a decline in habitat quality, increased mortality rates, and reduced food availability due to invasive species.

The Colorado River Aqueduct

Metropolitan Water District of Southern California (MWD) | July 5th, 2021

The Coming Megafloods

Scientific American | May 5th, 2013

Huge flows of vapor in the atmosphere, dubbed “atmospheric rivers,” have unleashed massive floods every 200 years, and climate change could bring more of them.

Huge flows of vapor in the atmosphere, dubbed “atmospheric rivers,” have unleashed massive floods every 200 years, and climate change could bring more of them.

The Complete Story of the Project: Its Purposes, Plans, and Progress of Construction

Scientific American | September 1st, 1932

IN THE Black Canyon of the Colorado, where the river forms the boundary between the states of Arizona and Nevada, the Government of the United States through the Depa

IN THE Black Canyon of the Colorado, where the river forms the boundary between the states of Arizona and Nevada, the Government of the United States through the Department of the Interior and directly by the Bureau of Reclamation has started construction of Hoover Dam. On September 17, 1930, constructional activities were formally inaugurated by Secretary of the Interior Ray Lyman Wilbur, and since that date, under the supervision and control of the Bureau of Reclamation, headed by Commissioner Elwood Mead, the building of the dam has progressed rapidly. Construction operations are carried out under the direction of R. F. Walter, Chief Engineer of the Bureau of Reclamation, represented in the field by the writer.

The cost of alternative urban water supply and efficiency options in California

Environmental Research Communications (IOP) | May 28th, 2019

Urban communities, farms, businesses, and natural ecosystems depend upon adequate, reliable, and affordable supplies of clean water. As populations and economies

Urban communities, farms, businesses, and natural ecosystems depend upon adequate, reliable, and affordable supplies of clean water. As populations and economies grow and as climatic changes alter both water supply and demand, traditional options for meeting freshwater needs are becoming less available, reliable, and effective. As we approach peak water constraints on traditional water supplies, more efforts needed to reduce water demands through a wide range of conservation and efficiency technologies and policies, and to develop alternative, non-traditional water sources. A key factor in the adoption of these strategies is their economic feasibility; yet, only limited and often confusing data are available on their relative costs. To fill this gap, this analysis evaluates the costs of four groups of alternatives for urban supply and demand based on data and analysis in the California context: stormwater capture; water recycling and reuse; brackish and seawater desalination; and a range of water conservation and efficiency measures. We also describe some important co-benefits or avoided costs, such as reducing water withdrawals from surface water bodies or polluted runoff in coastal waterways. While difficult to quantify, such benefits are economically relevant, and we highlight areas where further research and analysis are needed to improve estimates presented here. All of the water- use efficiency options are far less costly than traditional or alternative supply systems with the exception of some of the most expensive landscape water reduction options. The water treatment and reuse systems and the urban stormwater capture projects are more costly per unit of water produced but still less expensive than seawater desalination—the most expensive option evaluated.

The Cost of Alternative Water Supply and Efficiency Options in California

Pacific Institute | October 13th, 2016

The Cost of Alternative Water Supply and Efficiency Options in California is the first comprehensive analysis to examine the cost of various strategies throughout the sta

The Cost of Alternative Water Supply and Efficiency Options in California is the first comprehensive analysis to examine the cost of various strategies throughout the state to augment local water supplies and reduce water demand in urban areas. The study uses methods developed in the field of energy economics to determine the “levelized” costs of each supply and demand management option. The study finds that the cost of new supplies in California is highly varied. Large stormwater capture projects are among the least expensive of the water supplies examined, with a median cost of about $590 per acre-foot. By contrast, seawater desalination, with a median cost of $2,100 per acre-foot for large projects and $2,800 per acre-foot for smaller projects, is among the most expensive water supply option. Brackish water desalination is much less expensive due to lower energy and treatment costs. Generally, the cost of recycled water is in between that of stormwater capture and seawater desalination. Non-potable reuse – which treats water for irrigation and other non-drinking purposes – is typically less expensive than indirect potable reuse due to the lower treatment requirements; however, the cost of building or expanding a separate “purple pipe” distribution system to deliver non-potable water may be such that indirect potable reuse could be more cost effective. Nonetheless, the study finds that urban water conservation and efficiency are the most cost-effective ways to meet current and future water needs. Indeed, many residential and non-residential measures have a “negative cost,” which means that they save the customer more money over their lifetime than they cost to implement.

The Cost of Regulating Active Landfills for Water Quality

California State Water Resources Control Board (SWRCB) | January 3rd, 2016

This report to the legislature was prepared pursuant to Chapter 718, Statutes of 2010 (SB 855, Committee on Budget and Fiscal Review), which requires the State Water Reso

This report to the legislature was prepared pursuant to Chapter 718, Statutes of 2010 (SB 855, Committee on Budget and Fiscal Review), which requires the State Water Resources Control Board (State Water Board) to submit to the budget committees in each house of the legislature a report on the costs of regulating water quality at active landfills. The State Water Board and Regional Water Quality Control Boards (Regional Boards, collectively, the Water Boards) analyzed the cost of resources required to implement State and Federal statutes, regulations, and policies at these facilities. This report provides an overview of the Water Boards’ Land Disposal Program, followed by a cost analysis. The Water Boards’ Land Disposal Program provides regulatory oversight to 439 active landfills and 235 other waste management facilities in the State. Active landfills are all landfills that still pose a threat to the environment, even if they have stopped accepting waste. Active landfills are classified as operating or non-operating, with non-operating landfills including proposed, closing, and closed landfills. There are an estimated 1600 legacy landfills that were not included in the cost analysis for this report. Legacy landfills are waste management units that were closed, abandoned, or inactive prior to the adoption of revised State Water Board regulations in November 1984. In response to the legislative requirements, the results of this analysis show the cost of regulating the 439 active landfills to be approximately $18.1 million. The Land Disposal Program also regulates other waste management facilities as an integral part of the program, and tracks these facilities along with active landfills. Based on this analysis, the cost of regulating the 235 other waste management facilities is approximately $7.6 million. In total, implementation of the Land Disposal Program would cost approximately $25.7 million (not including legacy landfills). In Fiscal Year 2011-2012, the total expenditures incurred by the Land Disposal Program were approximately $10.6 million. As this presents an approximately $15.2 million shortfall in funding, the program prioritizes work based on threat to water quality, complexity, and level of activity at the facility. Working within existing resource constraints, the Land Disposal Program is currently implementing a series of efficiency measures to improve program effectiveness. A discussion of these efforts concludes this report.