Estimating evapotranspiration change due to forest treatment and fire at the basin scale in the Sierra Nevada, California: Forest Disturbance and Evapotranspiration Change

Ecohydrology (Wiley) | April 6th, 2018

We investigated the potential magnitude and duration of forest evapotranspiration (ET) decreases resulting from forest‐thinning treatments and wildfire in west‐slope

We investigated the potential magnitude and duration of forest evapotranspiration (ET) decreases resulting from forest‐thinning treatments and wildfire in west‐slope watersheds of the Sierra Nevada range in California, USA, using a robust empirical relation between Landsat‐derived mean‐annual normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and ET measured at flux towers. Among forest treatments, the minimum observed NDVI change required to produce a significant departure from control plots with NDVI of about 0.70 was −0.09 units, corresponding to a basal‐area reduction of 29.1 m2/ha (45% reduction) and equivalent to an estimated ET reduction of 153 mm/year (21% change; approximate mean annual precipitation = 1,000 mm). Intensive thinning in highly productive forests that approached prefire‐exclusion densities reduced basal area by 40–50%, generating estimated ET reductions of 153–218 mm/year (21–27% change) over 5 years following treatment. Low‐intensity underburn treatments resulted in no significant change in ET. Examining the cumulative impact of wildfires on ET between 1990 and 2008, we found that the lower and wetter American River basin (5,310 km2) generated more than twice the ET reduction per unit area than those in the higher and drier Kings River basin (4,790 km2), corresponding to greater water and energy limitations in the latter and greater fire severity in the former. A rough extrapolation of these results to the entire American River watershed suggests that ET reductions due to forest thinning by wildfire could approach 10% of full natural flows for dry years and 5% over all years.

Estimating Exposure of Piscivorous Birds and Sport Fish to Mercury in California Lakes Using Prey Fish Monitoring—A Predictive Tool for Managers

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | May 22nd, 2015

Numerous water bodies in California are listed under the Clean Water Act as being impaired due to mercury (Hg) contamination. The Surface Water Ambient Monitoring Program

Numerous water bodies in California are listed under the Clean Water Act as being impaired due to mercury (Hg) contamination. The Surface Water Ambient Monitoring Program (SWAMP), via the Bioaccumulation Oversight Group (BOG), has recently completed statewide surveys of contaminants in sport fish tissue from more than 250 lakes and rivers in California and throughout coastal waters. This effort focused on human health issues but did not include beneficial uses by wildlife. Many piscivorous birds such as grebes, terns, cormorants, and mergansers eat fish smaller than those that were sampled by BOG, and sport fish Hg concentrations are not always indicative of wildlife exposure to Hg; therefore, the BOG surveys could not address whether wildlife were at risk due to Hg-induced reproductive impairment in these lakes. We used western grebes (Aechmophorus occidentalis) and Clark’s grebes (Aechmophorus clarkii) as our index of wildlife exposure to Hg in California lakes. Grebes are widely distributed in lakes throughout California and, as piscivorous waterbirds, are near the top of the food chain in lakes. Additionally, grebes become flightless after they arrive at their summer locations. Thus, grebes are useful representatives for wildlife risk from local, lake-specific contaminant exposure. Grebes also breed at many lakes throughout California, making them susceptible to impaired reproduction due to local Hg contamination. We developed a tool for estimating wildlife and sport fish risk from Hg exposure based on Hg concentrations in prey fish. This quantitative tool can be used to predict Hg concentrations in grebe blood, grebe eggs, and sport fish, thus facilitating a feasible alternative for adequately estimating wildlife exposure when more comprehensive wildlife sampling is not possible. Specifically, we sampled grebes, prey fish, and sport fish simultaneously at 25 lakes throughout California during the spring and summer of 2012 and 2013 when breeding birds are particularly vulnerable to Hg-induced reproductive impairment. We selected lakes based on a combination of factors, including lakes from southern and northern California, of various sizes, shapes, and elevations, with a range of sport fish Hg exposure levels where largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides) was the primary sport fish, and with a history of use by grebes. Using these factors ensured that our results are representative of a broad range of lakes and reservoirs in California and are comparable to prior BOG studies. Specifically, we addressed three management questions: Does methylmercury pose significant risks to aquatic life in a representative sample of California lakes and reservoirs? Can a correlational approach be applied on a statewide basis to estimate risks to birds? What are appropriate water-quality monitoring requirements to address methylmercury exposure in wildlife?

Estimating Historical California Precipitation Phase Trends Using Gridded Precipitation, Precipitation Phase, and Elevation Data

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | July 18th, 2014

Climate change projections for California indicate reduction in the percentage of precipitation that falls as snow, and increase in the percentage that falls as rain, due

Climate change projections for California indicate reduction in the percentage of precipitation that falls as snow, and increase in the percentage that falls as rain, due to warmer temperatures in the future. Previous work has shown overall decreases in rainfall / snowfall ratios for the western US over the last 60 years. Of interest in this study is the quantification of snow/rain ratios for smaller regions, specifically in California. Estimating cumulative precipitation phase ratios for specific regions is difficult due to large differences in local precipitation. In California, the high relief of the surface topography makes such estimates particularly difficult. The low spatial resolution of suitable precipitation/snow water equivalent monitoring stations contributes to the difficulty in quantifying the trends for sub-state sized regions of interest in this study. The present exploratory study develops and describes a methodology that uses readily available research data sets to produce gridded estimates of historical rainfall as a fraction of total precipitation for areas comprising the major water-supply watersheds of California. Using this methodology, statistically significant increases in the ratio of annual liquid to total precipitation are seen for large areas in the northern part of the State and northern Sierra over the water year. No significant annual trends are seen for regions in the central and southern portions of the Sierra. Future work extending the analysis to distinct elevation ranges and seasonality would provide more refined conclusions.

Estimating Lithium Concentrations in Groundwater Used as Drinking Water for the Conterminous United States

American Chemical Society (ACS) | January 2nd, 2024

Estimating Monetized Benefits of Groundwater Recharge from Stormwater Retention Practices

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) | February 4th, 2016

Stormwater impacts from development have been documented extensively in peer-reviewed literature and summarized in the National Research Council’s report titled Urban S

Stormwater impacts from development have been documented extensively in peer-reviewed literature and summarized in the National Research Council’s report titled Urban Stormwater Management in the United States (National Research Council, 2009). To address these impacts, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Office of Water (OW) evaluated several potential scenarios for managing stormwater from new development and redevelopment using small stormwater retention practices. The objective of these practices is to reduce runoff volume to simulate pre-development hydrology and protect water quality. These practices are often designed to infiltrate the retained water, which can provide groundwater recharge to help maintain predevelopment groundwater levels. For the purposes of this study, infiltration was assumed, whereas in practice capture-and-use or other methods also may be applied. The purpose of the study is to inform valuation of groundwater recharge from stormwater retention in areas projected for new development and redevelopment. Retention practices can prevent the loss of natural recharge that may occur on a developed site without these practices. This study examined a simplified methodology for estimating recharge volume and used observed prices of water for monetary valuation. Groundwater recharge is just one benefit within the larger context of the costs and benefits of stormwater retention practices. The full range of potential benefits were not addressed in this study, but the full suite of benefits should be considered when comparing to an estimated cost of implementation. Costs of implementing retention practices in areas of new and redevelopment also were not addressed in this study. The estimates represent the groundwater recharge volume and value that would result if stormwater retention practices were implemented in areas within the contiguous U.S. not currently requiring stormwater retention. The stormwater retention practices were assumed to capture a specified depth of runoff, in the range of 0.5 to 2 inches (i.e. not large storm attenuation) with a goal of reducing runoff volumes to levels similar to those for pre-developed landscape conditions. This approach is commonly referred to as “green infrastructure” for stormwater management or low impact development (LID). While small storm retention that approximates predevelopment runoff could also be achieved with cisterns in those areas where infiltration is not desired or is not feasible, the option of cistern capture was not evaluated in this study. The timeframe selected for the purpose of the predictive study was the 20-year period of 2021 through 2040.

Estimating perchlorate exposure from food and tap water based on U.S. biomonitoring and occurrence data

Journal of Exposure Science & Environmental Epidemiology (Springer) | June 23rd, 2010

Human biomonitoring data show that exposure to perchlorate is widespread in the United States. The predominant source of intake is food, whereas drinking water is

Human biomonitoring data show that exposure to perchlorate is widespread in the United States. The predominant source of intake is food, whereas drinking water is a less frequent and far smaller contributor. We used spot urine samples for over 2700 subjects and estimated 24 h intake using new creatinine adjustment equations. Merging data from surveys of national health (NHANES) with drinking water monitoring (UCMR), we categorized survey participants according to their potential exposure through drinking water or food. By subtracting daily food doses of perchlorate from the oral reference dose (RfD), we derive an allowances for perchlorate in tap water for several populations. The calculated mean food perchlorate dose in the United States was 0.081 μg/kg/day compared to 0.101 μg/kg/day for those who also had a potential drinking water component. The calculated 95th percentile doses, typically falling between 0.2 and 0.4 μg/kg/day, were well below the RfD (0.7 μg/kg/day) in all populations analyzed. Children aged 6–11 years had the highest mean perchlorate doses in food (0.147 μg/kg/day), with an additional water contribution of only 0.003 μg/kg/day representing just 2% of exposure. Pregnant women had a mean food dose of 0.093 vs 0.071 μg/kg/day for all women of reproductive age. At the 95th percentile intake for both the total population and women of child-bearing age (15–44), the perchlorate contribution from food was 86% and from drinking water 14% (respectively, 30% and 5% of the RfD). At the mean for the same groups, the food to water contribution ratio is approximately 80:20. We calculate that an average 66 kg pregnant woman consuming a 90th percentile food dose (0.198 μg/kg/day) could also drink the 90th percentile of community water for pregnant women (0.033 l/kg/day) containing 15 μg/l perchlorate without exceeding the 0.7 μg/kg/day reference dose.

Estimating reservoir sedimentation rates at large spatialand temporal scales: A case study of California

Water Resources Research, American Geophysical Union (AGU) | December 25th, 2009

Previous reservoir sedimentation models have ignored two key factors for large spatial and temporal modeling of multiple reservoirs: trapping by upstream dams and decre

Previous reservoir sedimentation models have ignored two key factors for large spatial and temporal modeling of multiple reservoirs: trapping by upstream dams and decreasing sediment trapping as reservoirs fill. We developed a spreadsheet-based model that incorporates both factors. Using California as a case study, we used measured sedimentation rates to estimate sediment yields for distinct geomorphic regions and applied those rates to unmeasured reservoirs by region. Statewide reservoirs have likely filled with 2.1 billion m3 of sediment to date, decreasing total reservoir capacity by 4.5%. About 200 reservoirs have likely lost more than half their initial capacity to sedimentation.

Estimating Spatially and Temporally Varying Recharge and Runoff from Precipitation and Urban Irrigation in the Los Angeles Basin, California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | October 6th, 2016

A daily precipitation-runoff model, referred to as the Los Angeles Basin watershed model (LABWM), was used to estimate recharge and runoff for a 5,047 square kilometer st

A daily precipitation-runoff model, referred to as the Los Angeles Basin watershed model (LABWM), was used to estimate recharge and runoff for a 5,047 square kilometer study area that included the greater Los Angeles area and all surface-water drainages potentially contributing recharge to a 1,450 square kilometer groundwater-study area underlying the greater Los Angeles area, referred to as the Los Angeles groundwater-study area. The recharge estimates for the Los Angeles groundwater-study area included spatially distributed recharge in response to the infiltration of precipitation, runoff, and urban irrigation, as well as mountain-front recharge from surface-water drainages bordering the groundwater-study area. The recharge and runoff estimates incorporated a new method for estimating urban irrigation, consisting of residential and commercial landscape watering, based on land use and the percentage of pervious land area. The LABWM used a 201.17-meter gridded discretization of the study area to represent spatially distributed climate and watershed characteristics affecting the surface and shallow sub-surface hydrology for the Los Angeles groundwater study area. Climate data from a local network of 201 monitoring sites and published maps of 30-year-average monthly precipitation and maximum and minimum air temperature were used to develop the climate inputs for the LABWM. Published maps of land use, land cover, soils, vegetation, and surficial geology were used to represent the physical characteristics of the LABWM area. The LABWM was calibrated to available streamflow records at six streamflow-gaging stations. Model results for a 100-year target-simulation period, from water years 1915 through 2014, were used to quantify and evaluate the spatial and temporal variability of water-budget components, including evapotranspiration (ET), recharge, and runoff. The largest outflow of water from the LABWM was ET; the 100-year average ET rate of 362 millimeters per year (mm/yr) accounted for 66 percent of the combined water inflow of 551 mm/yr, including 488 mm/yr from precipitation and 63 mm/yr from urban irrigation. The simulated ET rate varied from a minimum of 0 mm/yr for impervious areas to high values of more than 1,000 mm/yr for many areas, including the south-facing slopes of the San Gabriel Mountains, stream channels underlain by permeable soils and thick root zones, and pervious locations receiving inflows both from urban irrigation and surface water. Runoff was the next largest outflow, averaging 145 mm/yr for the 100-year period, or 26 percent of the combined precipitation and urban-irrigation inflow. Recharge averaged 45 mm/yr, or about 8 percent of the combined inflow from precipitation and urban irrigation. Simulation results indicated that recharge in response to urban irrigation was an important component of spatially distributed recharge, contributing an average of 56 percent of the total recharge to the eight LABWM subdomains containing the Los Angeles groundwater study area. The 100?year average recharge rate for the eight subdomains was 41 mm/yr, or 8,473 hectare-meters per year (ha-m/yr), with urban irrigation included in the simulation compared to a recharge rate of 18 mm/yr, or 3,741 ha-m/yr, with urban irrigation excluded. In contrast to recharge, the effect of urban irrigation on runoff was slight; runoff was 72,667 ha-m/yr with urban irrigation included compared to 72,618 ha-m/yr with urban irrigation excluded, an increase of only 48 ha-m/yr (about 0.1 percent). Simulation results also indicated that potential recharge from hilly drainages outside of, but bordering and tributary to, the lower-lying area of the Los Angeles groundwater study area, in this study referred to as mountain-front recharge, could provide an important contribution to the total recharge for the groundwater basins. The time-averaged recharge rate was similar to the combined direct and mountain-front recharge components estimated in a previous study and used as input for a calibrated groundwater model. The annual (water year) recharge estimates simulated in this study, however, indicated much greater year-to-year variability, which was dependent on year-to-year variability in the magnitude and distribution of daily precipitation, compared to the previous estimates.

Estimating the permanent loss of groundwater storage in the southern San Joaquin Valley, California

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | February 23rd, 2017

In the San Joaquin Valley, California, recent droughts starting in 2007 have increased the pumping of groundwater, leading to widespread subsidence. In the southern porti

In the San Joaquin Valley, California, recent droughts starting in 2007 have increased the pumping of groundwater, leading to widespread subsidence. In the southern portion of the San Joaquin Valley, vertical subsidence as high as 85 cm has been observed between June 2007 and December 2010 using Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR). This study seeks to map regions where inelastic (not recoverable) deformation occurred during the study period, resulting in permanent compaction and loss of groundwater storage. We estimated the amount of permanent compaction by incorporating multiple data sets: the total deformation derived from InSAR, estimated skeletal-specific storage and hydraulic parameters, geologic information, and measured water levels during our study period. We used two approaches, one that we consider to provide an estimate of the lowest possible amount of inelastic deformation, and one that provides a more reasonable estimate. These two approaches resulted in a spatial distribution of values for the percentage of the total deformation that was inelastic, with the former estimating a spatially averaged value of 54%, and the latter a spatially averaged value of 98%. The former corresponds to the permanent loss of m3 of groundwater storage, or roughly 5% of the volume of groundwater used over the study time period; the latter corresponds to the loss of m3 of groundwater storage, or roughly 9% of the volume of groundwater used. This study demonstrates that a data-driven approach can be used effectively to estimate the permanent loss of groundwater storage.

Estimating the potential economic impacts of climate change on Southern California beaches

Climatic Change (Springer) | November 24th, 2011

Climate change could substantially alter the width of beaches in Southern California. Climate-driven sea level rise will have at least two important impacts on beaches: (

Climate change could substantially alter the width of beaches in Southern California. Climate-driven sea level rise will have at least two important impacts on beaches: (1) higher sea level will cause all beaches to become more narrow, all things being held constant, and (2) sea level rise may affect patterns of beach erosion and accretion when severe storms combine with higher high tides. To understand the potential economic impacts of these two outcomes, this study examined the physical and economic effects of permanent beach loss caused by inundation due to sea level rise of one meter and of erosion and accretion caused by a single, extremely stormy year (using a model of beach change based on the wave climate conditions of the El Niño year of 1982/1983.) We use a random utility model of beach attendance in Southern California that estimates the impacts of changes on beach width for different types of beach user visiting public beaches in Los Angeles and Orange Counties. The model allows beachgoers to have different preferences for beach width change depending on beach size. We find that the effect of climate-driven beach change differs for users that participate in bike path activities, sand-based activities, and water-based activities. We simulate the effects of climate-related beach loss on attendance patterns at 51 public beaches, beach-related expenditures at those beaches, and the non-market (consumer surplus) value of beach going to those beaches. We estimate that increasing sea level will cause an overall reduction of economic value in beach going, with some beaches experiencing increasing attendance and beach-related earnings while attendance and earnings at other beaches would be lower. We also estimate that the potential annual economic impacts from a single stormy year may be as large as those caused by permanent inundation that would result from a rise in sea level of one meter. The economic impacts of both permanent inundation and storm-related erosion are distributed unevenly across the region. To put the economic impacts of these changes in beach width in perspective, the paper provides simple estimates of the cost of mitigating beach loss by nourishing beaches with sand.