A multi-city COVID-19 forecasting model utilizing wastewater-based epidemiology

Science of the Total Environment (Elsevier) | January 15th, 2025

A multi-isotope (B, Sr, O, H, and C) and age dating (3H–3He and14C) study of groundwater from Salinas Valley, California: Hydrochemistry, dynamics, and contamination processes

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | January 31st, 2002

The chemical and isotope (11B/10B, 87Sr/86Sr, 18O/16O, 2H/H, 13C/12C, 14C, and 3He/3H) compositions of groundwater from the upper aquifer system of the Salinas Valley in

The chemical and isotope (11B/10B, 87Sr/86Sr, 18O/16O, 2H/H, 13C/12C, 14C, and 3He/3H) compositions of groundwater from the upper aquifer system of the Salinas Valley in coastal central California were investigated in order to delineate the origin and processes of groundwater contamination in this complex system. The Salinas Valley has a relatively deep, confined ‘‘400- foot’’ aquifer, overlain by a ‘‘180-foot’’ aquifer and a shallower perched aquifer, all made up of alluvial sand, gravel and clay deposits. Groundwater from the aquifers have different 14C ages: fossil (14C = 21.3 percent modern carbon (pmc) for the 400-foot aquifer and modern (14C = 72.2–98.2 pmc) for the 180-foot aquifer. Fresh groundwater in all aquifers is recharged naturally and artificially through the Salinas River. The two modes of recharge can be distinguished chemically.We identified several different saline components with distinguishable chemical and isotopic fingerprints. Saltwater intrusion in the northern basin has C1 concentrations up to 1700 mg/L, a Na/Cl ratio less than seawater, a marine Br/Cl ratio, a Ca/Cl ratio greater than seawater, d11B between +17 and +38% and 87Sr/86Sr between 0.7088 and 0.7096. Excess dissolved Ca, relative to the expected concentration for simple dilution of seawater, correlates with 87Sr/86Sr ratios, suggesting base exchange reaction with clay materials. (2) Agriculture return flow is high inNO3 and SO4, with a 87Sr/86Sr = 0.7082,d11B = 19% and d13C between 23 and 17%. The 3H–3He ages (5–17 years) and 14C data suggest vertical infiltration rates of irrigation water of 3–10 m/yr. (3) Nonmarine saline water in the southern part of the valley has high total dissolved solids up to 3800 mg/L, high SO4, Na/Cl ratio >1, d11B between +24 and +30%, and 87Sr/86Sr = 0.70852. This groundwater may have acquired its geochemical signature from leaching of sedimentary rocks associated with the Coast Range marine deposits of Mesozoic to early Cenozoic age. The combination of different geochemical and isotopic fingerprints enables us to delineate the impact of salt sources in different areas of the valley and to reconstruct the origin of the SO4-enriched NO3-depleted saline plume that is located west of the city of Salinas. We suggest that the latter is derived from a mixture of different natural saline waters rather than from anthropogenic contamination.

A multi-predator trophic database for the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | July 27th, 2023

A multi-scale approach for identification of potential pesticide use sites impacting vernal pool critical habitat in California

Science of the Total Environment (Elsevier) | October 17th, 2022

Spatially explicit ecological risk assessment (ERA) requires estimating the overlap between chemical and receptor distribution to evaluate the potential impacts of exposu

Spatially explicit ecological risk assessment (ERA) requires estimating the overlap between chemical and receptor distribution to evaluate the potential impacts of exposure on nontarget organisms. Pesticide use estimation at field level is prone to error due to inconsistencies between ground-reporting and geospatial data coverage; attempts to rectify these inconsistencies have been limited in approach and rarely scaled to multiple crop types. We built upon a previously developed Bayesian approach to combine multiple crop types for a probabilistic determination of field-crop assignments and to examine co-occurrence of critical vernal pool habitats and bifenthrin application within a 5-county area in California (Madera, Merced, Sacramento, San Joaquin, and Stanislaus counties). We incorporated a multi-scale repeated sampling approach with an area constraint to improve the delineation of field boundaries and better capture variability in crop assignments and rotation schemes. After comparing the accuracy of the spatial probabilistic approach to USDA Census of Agriculture crop acreage data, we found our approach allows more specificity in the combination of crop types represented by the potential application area and improves acreage estimates when compared to traditional deterministic approaches. In addition, our multi-scale sampling scheme improved estimates of bifenthrin acreage variability for co-occurrence analysis and allowed for estimates of crop rotations that were previously uncaptured. Our approach could be leveraged for more realistic, spatially resolved exposure and effects models both in and outside of California.

A Multidataset Assessment of Climatic Drivers and Uncertainties of Recent Trends in Evaporative Demand across the Continental United States

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | April 1st, 2022

Increased atmospheric evaporative demand has important implications for humans and ecosystems in water-scarce lands. While temperature plays a significant role in drivin

Increased atmospheric evaporative demand has important implications for humans and ecosystems in water-scarce lands. While temperature plays a significant role in driving evaporative demand and its trend, other climate variables are also influential and their contributions to recent trends in evaporative demand are unknown. We address this gap with an assessment of recent (1980–2020) trends in annual reference evapotranspiration (ETo) and its drivers across the continental United States based on five gridded datasets. In doing so, we characterize the structural uncertainty of ETo trends and decompose the relative influences of temperature, wind speed, solar radiation, and humidity. Results highlight large and robust changes in ETo across much of the western United States, centered on the Rio Grande region where ETo increased 135–235 mm during 1980–2020. The largest uncertainties in ETo trends are in the central and eastern United States and surrounding the Upper Colorado River. Trend decomposition highlights the strong and widespread influence of temperature, which contributes to 57% of observed ETo trends, on average. ETo increases are mitigated by increases in specific humidity in non-water-limited regions, while small decreases in specific humidity and increases in wind speed and solar radiation magnify ETo increases across the West. Our results show increases in ETo across the West that are already emerging outside the range of variability observed 20–40 years ago. Our results suggest that twenty-first-century land and water managers need to plan for an already increasing influence of evaporative demand on water availability and wildfire risks. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: Increased atmospheric thirst due to climate warming has the potential to decrease water availability and increase wildfire risks in water-scarce regions. Here, we identified how much atmospheric thirst has changed across the continental United States over the past 40 years, what climate variables are driving the change, and how consistent these changes are among five data sources. We found that atmospheric thirst is consistently emerging outside the range experienced in the late twentieth century in some western regions with 57% of the change driven by temperature. Importantly, we demonstrate that increased atmospheric thirst has already become a persistent forcing of western landscapes and water supplies toward drought and will be an essential consideration for land and water management planning going forward.

A multiscale model for El Niño complexity

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | March 11th, 2022

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibits diverse characteristics in spatial pattern, peak intensity, and temporal evolution. Here we develop a three-region multiscal

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibits diverse characteristics in spatial pattern, peak intensity, and temporal evolution. Here we develop a three-region multiscale stochastic model to show that the observed ENSO complexity can be explained by combining intraseasonal, interannual, and decadal processes. The model starts with a deterministic three-region system for the interannual variabilities. Then two stochastic processes of the intraseasonal and decadal variation are incorporated. The model can reproduce not only the general properties of the observed ENSO events, but also the complexity in patterns (e.g., Central Pacific vs. Eastern Pacific events), intensity (e.g., 10–20 year reoccurrence of extreme El Niños), and temporal evolution (e.g., more multi-year La Niñas than multi-year El Niños). While conventional conceptual models were typically used to understand the dynamics behind the common properties of ENSO, this model offers a powerful tool to understand and predict ENSO complexity that challenges our understanding of the twenty-first century ENSO.

A National Framework for Groundwater Monitoring in the United States

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | July 1st, 2013

The establishment and management of a National Ground-Water Monitoring Network (NGWMN) in the United States would represent a significant achievement in water-resource ma

The establishment and management of a National Ground-Water Monitoring Network (NGWMN) in the United States would represent a significant achievement in water-resource management. The need for ground-water monitoring focused on the major aquifers and aquifer systems in the USA is increasingly important as a key element of sustainable ground-water resource management and use. The National Framework described in this report provides detailed information and recommendations for developing and operating a national ground-water monitoring network that would provide ongoing data collection on ground-water quantity and quality. These data will be available to the public and will be critical for addressing ground-water management issues at the Federal, State, Tribal and local levels. The data will be particularly useful for “state of the resource” assessments requested by State Legislatures and the U.S. Congress. The National Framework was developed by the Subcommittee on Ground Water (SOGW), an ad-hoc committee under the Advisory Committee on Water Information (ACWI), which is a Department of the Interior Federal Advisory Committee.

A New Approach to Accounting for Environmental Water Insights from the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta

Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) | November 9th, 2017

How water is apportioned to California’s cities, farms, and the environment can lead to conflict and competition in times of drought. Allocation of water to the environ

How water is apportioned to California’s cities, farms, and the environment can lead to conflict and competition in times of drought. Allocation of water to the environment in particular is poorly accounted for and poorly understood—shortcomings that can affect water policy, decision making, and public perception. This report reviews the state’s long-standing methods for defining and accounting for environmental water and proposes reforms to improve the timeliness, transparency, and detail in the accounting of environmental water allocation.

A New Paradigm for Adaptive Management

Ecology and Society (E&S) | July 1st, 2013

Uncertainty is a pervasive feature in natural resource management. Adaptive management, an approach that focuses on identifying critical uncertainties to be reduced via

Uncertainty is a pervasive feature in natural resource management. Adaptive management, an approach that focuses on identifying critical uncertainties to be reduced via diagnostic management experiments, is one favored approach for tackling this reality. While adaptive management is identified as a key method in the environmental management toolbox, there remains a lack of clarity over when its use is appropriate or feasible. Its implementation is often viewed as suitable only in a limited set of circumstances. Here we restructure some of the ideas supporting this view, and show why much of the pessimism around AM may be unwarranted. We present a new framework for deciding when AM is appropriate, feasible, and subsequently successful. We thus present a new paradigm for adaptive management that shows that there are no categorical limitations to its appropriate use, the boundaries of application being defined by problem conception and the resources available to managers. In doing so we also separate adaptive management as a management tool, from the burden of failures that result from the complex policy, social, and institutional environment within which management occurs.

A New Technique for Modeling Land Subsidence Facilitates Better Groundwater Management

Stanford University | December 1st, 2019

Land subsidence – the sudden sinking or gradual settling of Earth’s surface – can occur naturally or be triggered by human activity. One of the most comm

Land subsidence – the sudden sinking or gradual settling of Earth’s surface – can occur naturally or be triggered by human activity. One of the most common human-affected factors is groundwater pumping, a practice that has been steadily increasing due to prolonged periods of drought. Groundwater pumping is so prevalent in some areas that it is severely compromising the quantity and quality of the groundwater as well as the physical structure of the land and aquifer capacity beneath it. Large-scale initiatives for putting water back into the ground, or groundwater recharge, are being implemented in some regions. However, groundwater resource managers still need better information to determine where the land is at greatest risk of subsidence as well as where recharge efforts would be the most effective. Integrating two reliable data gathering sources – helicopter-deployed systems (airborne electromagnetic or AEM technology) that measure electromagnetic fields and satellite-deployed systems (interferometric synthetic aperture radar or InSAR) to measure deformations – offers groundwater managers an improved method for more accurately modeling changes in the land surface related to the pumping and recharge of groundwater. Additionally, the ability to more precisely detect subsidence may offer an early warning system for declining groundwater levels.