Climate-Altered Wetlands Challenge Waterbird Use and Migratory Connectivity in Arid Landscapes

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | March 15th, 2019

Wetlands in arid landscapes provide critical habitat for millions of migratory waterbirds across the world and throughout their annual cycle. The scope and scale

Wetlands in arid landscapes provide critical habitat for millions of migratory waterbirds across the world and throughout their annual cycle. The scope and scale of understanding avian use of these wetlands in conjunction with changes in climate are daunting yet critical to address lest we lose continent-wide migratory pathways. Here, we assess changes in waterbird use of North America’s Pacific Flyway in the Great Basin by examining water availability and climate trends over the past 100 years. We found recent (1980–2015) climate warming has significantly reduced the amount and shifted seasonality of water flowing into wetlands. Further, we found remarkable changes in waterbird species composition over time. We propose that a reduced hydroperiod and lower water quality from reduction in water level and flow limits sites used by waterbirds. These factors reduce chick survivorship as they cannot metabolize saline water, which makes suitable freshwater conditions a limiting resource. Collectively, climate-induced changes in Great Basin wetlands suggest a major shift in freshwater ecosystems, resulting in degradation of a continental migratory route. This work illustrates the importance of examining multi-scale changes in critical regional resources to understand their impact across a hemispheric flyway and provides a model to examine other flyways.

Climate-driven aerobic habitat loss in the California Current System

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) | May 15th, 2020

Climate warming is expected to intensify hypoxia in the California Current System (CCS), threatening its diverse and productive marine ecosystem. We analyzed past region

Climate warming is expected to intensify hypoxia in the California Current System (CCS), threatening its diverse and productive marine ecosystem. We analyzed past regional variability and future changes in the Metabolic Index, a species-specific measure of the environment’s capacity to meet temperature-dependent organismal oxygen demand. Across the traits of diverse animals, exhibits strong seasonal to interdecadal variations throughout the CCS, implying that resident species already experience large fluctuations in available aerobic habitat. For a key CCS species, northern anchovy, the long-term biogeographic distribution and decadal fluctuations in abundance are both highly coherent with aerobic habitat volume. Ocean warming and oxygen loss by 2100 are projected to decrease below critical levels in 30 to 50% of anchovies’ present range, including complete loss of aerobic habitat—and thus likely extirpation—from the southern CCS. Aerobic habitat loss will vary widely across the traits of CCS taxa, disrupting ecological interactions throughout the region.

Climate-driven disturbances amplify forest drought sensitivity

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | June 7th, 2024

Climate-informed hydrologic modeling and policy typology to guide managed aquifer recharge

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) | April 21st, 2021

Harvesting floodwaters to recharge depleted groundwater aquifers can simultaneously reduce flood and drought risks and enhance groundwater sustainability. However, deploy

Harvesting floodwaters to recharge depleted groundwater aquifers can simultaneously reduce flood and drought risks and enhance groundwater sustainability. However, deployment of this multibeneficial adaptation option is fundamentally constrained by how much water is available for recharge (WAFR) at present and under future climate change. Here, we develop a climate-informed and policy-relevant framework to quantify WAFR, its uncertainty, and associated policy actions. Despite robust and widespread increases in future projected WAFR in our case study of California (for 56/80% of subbasins in 2070–2099 under RCP4.5/RCP8.5), strong nonlinear interactions between diversion infrastructure and policy uncertainties constrain how much WAFR can be captured. To tap future elevated recharge potential through infrastructure expansion under deep uncertainties, we outline a novel robustness-based policy typology to identify priority areas of investment needs. Our WAFR analysis can inform effective investment decisions to adapt to future climate-fueled drought and flood risk over depleted aquifers, in California and beyond.

Climate-smart management of soil water storage: statewide analysis of California perennial crops

Environmental Research Letters (IOP) | April 9th, 2019

The FAO-56 dual crop coefficient model was used to simulate site-specific irrigation management to quantify the green water resource (rainfall stored in soil) in five Cal

The FAO-56 dual crop coefficient model was used to simulate site-specific irrigation management to quantify the green water resource (rainfall stored in soil) in five California perennial crops (alfalfa, almonds, grapes, pistachios, and walnuts), considering local soil water holding capacity and climate data from 2003 to 2018. We tested different rooting depths and irrigation management thresholds (allowable depletion) across 1.46 million hectares of cropland to determine how the size of the soil water reservoir affects green water utilization and, consequently, blue water demand (irrigation). The 13-year cumulative green water utilization ranged from 17 to 36 million km3 out of a 57 km3 rainfall input and 162–263 km3cumulative blue water demand. For a deep scenario (2 m rooting; 50% allowable depletion), green water met 12% of cumulative crop water demand. However, green water use was not uniform: 20% of the landscape met over 20% of its annual crop water demand. Deeper rooting or greater allowable depletion reduced blue water demand more than the increase in green water utilization, due to less frequent irrigations, which reduced soil evaporative loss. Compared to a 'business-as-usual' shallow irrigation management scenario (0.5 m rooting; 30% allowable depletion), a moderate scenario (1.0 m rooting; 50% allowable depletion) saved 30 km3 blue water evaporation and increased green water use by 7 km3through 13 years. Such savings would fill California's largest reservoir, Shasta Lake, 6.6 times. This study demonstrates an opportunity for climate-smart management of soil water storage, by delayed spring irrigation, applying deeper irrigations less often, and ending fall irrigation early.

Climate-Smart Tools to Protect California’s Freshwater Biodiversity

Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) | May 28th, 2024

California’s freshwater ecosystems—and the native plants and animals that rely on them—have been in decline for decades. Roughly half of California’s native fresh

California’s freshwater ecosystems—and the native plants and animals that rely on them—have been in decline for decades. Roughly half of California’s native freshwater species are highly vulnerable to extinction within this century. But efforts to protect and recover native species now face an additional serious threat: climate change, which is accelerating and compounding the impacts of past and current land and water management issues. Simply working harder, using the same insufficient approaches to conservation, is unlikely to be successful. New approaches, including some that are experimental or highly controversial, are urgently needed. Although California has recently made important strides in setting goals for salmon, the state lacks a comprehensive approach to protecting native biodiversity in the face of climate change. We have identified a portfolio of actions that can help California rise to this urgent challenge.

Climate, Drought, and Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the Fourth California Climate Assessment

California Energy Commission (CEC) | August 27th, 2018

Daily temperature and precipitation over California at a resolution of 1/16° (about 6 km, or 3.7 miles) were generated to support climate change impact studies for the

Daily temperature and precipitation over California at a resolution of 1/16° (about 6 km, or 3.7 miles) were generated to support climate change impact studies for the energy system and other sectors featured in the California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment. The data, derived from 32 coarse-resolution (~ 100 km) global climate models (GCMs), were bias corrected and downscaled using the Localized Constructed Analogues (LOCA) statistical method. The data cover 1950-2005 for the historical period and 2006-2100 for two future climate projections using medium and high greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions scenarios. Statewide, temperature is projected to increase 2-4 °C (medium emissions scenario) to 4-7 °C (high emissions scenario) by the end of this century. Precipitation shows fewer wet days, wetter winters, drier springs and autumns, and an increase in dry years as well as maximum precipitation in a single day. Ten GCMs that closely simulate California’s climate are identified for studies where all 32 GCMs cannot be used. Additional variables were downscaled for these 10, including wind speed, specific and relative humidity, and surface solar radiation. Four models that span the temperature and precipitation changes from the 10 are identified for studies that cannot accommodate the 10. Wind speed shows small decreases, while relative humidity changes are more complicated, with coastal increases but decreases inland. Surface solar radiation shows small Southern California increases in spring. The downscaled fields were applied to the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface model to develop snow cover, soil moisture, runoff, water loss from plants, surface heat fluxes, and other parameters. Moisture deficit is projected to increase over much of the state, particularly Northern California and the Sierra Nevada, while top level soil moisture is projected to decrease, particularly in Southern California. Most streamflows shift to earlier in the year, with the bigger shifts experienced in basins which currently have substantial contributions from snowmelt. Two versions of a 20-year dry spell were identified from one of the GCM simulations to investigate future drought: the original episode from 2051-2070, and one shifted earlier in the century with temperatures consistent with 2023-2042. For both, we provide downscaled temperatures and precipitation along with VIC hydrological output. Sea level rise (SLR) projections for California were generated using a probabilistic approach employing estimates of the components that contribute to global and regional SLR, including new science on the possibility of increased contribution from Antarctica. Hourly projections of sea level at selected coastal locations were generated out to 2100 that include tides, regional and local weather influences, and short period Pacific climate fluctuations along with the aforementioned sea level rise scenarios. The climate scenario and SLR data are available online from cal-adapt.org.

Climatic backdrop for Pueblo cultural development in the southwestern United States

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | May 24th, 2022

While climatic triggers for collapse and population migrations of ancestral Pueblo communities have been proposed, little is known about the overall climatic backdrop for

While climatic triggers for collapse and population migrations of ancestral Pueblo communities have been proposed, little is known about the overall climatic backdrop for the entire pre-Hispanic Pueblo period (ca. 1300 to 460 B2K). Here, we report data from stalagmite HC-1, from Hidden Cave, Guadalupe Mountains, New Mexico, covering the past 3400 years, showing an interval of increased frequency of droughts from 1260 to 370 yr B2K that is coeval with the entire pre-Hispanic Pueblo period. Our record suggests that this puebloan Late Holocene climatic interval was the most arid and highly variable climatic period of the last 3400 years. Climatic conditions favoring the introduction of cultivation existed prior to the Pueblo period during more pluvial-like conditions from at least 3400 to 1260 yr B2K. Hence, the change from the Desert Archaic/Basketmaker to Pueblo cultures was associated with a quick transition to increasing aridity into and through the Pueblo period associated with greater urbanization and the establishment of pueblo population centers.

Climatic Fluctuations, Drought, and Flow in the Colorado River Basin

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | August 16th, 2004

Climatic regulation of the neurotoxin domoic acid

National Academy of Sciences (NAS) | January 9th, 2017

Domoic acid is a potent neurotoxin produced by certain marine microalgae that can accumulate in the foodweb, posing a health threat to human seafood consumers a

Domoic acid is a potent neurotoxin produced by certain marine microalgae that can accumulate in the foodweb, posing a health threat to human seafood consumers and wildlife in coastal regions worldwide. Evidence of climatic regulation of domoic acid in shellfish over the past 20 y in the Northern California Current regime is shown. The timing of elevated domoic acid is strongly related to warm phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Oceanic Niño Index, an indicator of El Niño events. Ocean conditions in the northeast Pacific that are associated with warm phases of these indices, including changes in prevailing currents and advection of anomalously warm water masses onto the continental shelf, are hypothesized to contribute to increases in this toxin. We present an applied domoic acid risk assessment model for the US West Coast based on combined climatic and local variables. Evidence of regional- to basin-scale controls on domoic acid has not previously been presented. Our findings have implications in coastal zones worldwide that are affected by this toxin and are particularly relevant given the increased frequency of anomalously warm ocean conditions.