Human contributions to evapotranspiration mitigate swings in dry-to-wet year transitions
Zoe Amie Pierrat, Rebecca N. Gustine, Anna Boser, Sophie Ruehr, Christine M. Lee, J.T. Reager, Kerry Cawse-Nicholson | January 9th, 2026
California’s food and economic security depends on water availability, particularly under increasingly extreme climate scenarios. A key component of the water balance is evapotranspiration, the combination of soil and surface evaporation and plant transpiration. Evapotranspiration is influenced by natural drivers (e.g., climate, vegetation cover) and human intervention (e.g., irrigation, land management). Here, we analyze the transition between one of California’s driest years (2022) to an exceptionally wet year (2023) to assess evapotranspiration responses to climate extremes. Despite increased precipitation, total statewide evapotranspiration changed less than 10%. In 2022, human contributions accounted for 30% of statewide evapotranspiration and 80% in managed lands. In 2023, natural evapotranspiration increased, and human contributions fell by 30%, yet still comprised nearly 50% of evapotranspiration in managed areas. Our findings underscore the enduring role of human activity on California’s hydrology, even during wet years, and demonstrate a framework to separate natural and anthropogenic controls on evapotranspiration.
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