Groundwater and Remotely Sensed Phenology Reveal Vulnerability of Riparian Trees to Drought

The increasing frequency and magnitude of climatic extremes are altering water availability in dryland ecosystems globally. However, riparian vulnerability to hydroclimate whiplash remains poorly understood. Here, we examined how riparian willow, cottonwood, and valley oak trees respond to groundwater fluctuations and drought through their water use patterns and phenology. To this end, we combined time-series analysis of in situ, high-frequency groundwater monitoring with high-resolution PlanetScope satellite imagery of a drought-prone and relatively pristine watershed in California (Chalone Creek, Pinnacles National Park). We found that flow regime dictates the potential for trees to access groundwater, while the identity of tree species determines the timing and magnitude of their use. Machine-learning models revealed that at intermittent sites groundwater depth predominantly controlled vegetation greenness, represented by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). In contrast, variation in photoperiod length dominated at the perennial site where water was more reliably available. During the severe 2020–2022 drought, all species experienced reduced greenness, but phenological responses differed by flow regime. While the start of the season was delayed across all sites, trees at intermittent reaches exhibited a substantially earlier end of season during drought, resulting in growing seasons shortened by as much as 37 days. These phenological shifts vastly exceed those documented across aridity classifications in global datasets from satellite observations, ground-based monitoring networks, and experimental precipitation manipulations. Although riparian trees in drylands have been shaped by exposure to drought over evolutionary timescales, our findings show that trees in these intermittent systems may be operating close to critical groundwater thresholds, rendering them particularly vulnerable to increasingly long and severe droughts.