State of California Sea Level Rise Guidance
California Natural Resources Agency (CNRA) | March 14th, 2018
The climate across California is changing, and the effects, such as rising average temperatures, shrinking mountain snowpack, more intense storms, and higher sea levels are expected to continue and worsen in the coming decades. Sea-level rise is caused by the thermal expansion of warming ocean water and melting of land ice as the Earth warms. It is one of the most obvious manifestations of the trend of climate change and is an immediate and real threat to lives, livelihoods, transportation, economies, and the environment in California.
In April 2017, catalyzed by direction from Governor Brown and the need to ensure that best available science was informing sea-level rise planning decisions in California, a Working Group of the California Ocean Protection Council’s Science Advisory Team (OPC-SAT) released a report, entitled “Rising Seas in California: An Update on Sea-Level Rise.” The Rising Seas Report was prepared and peer-reviewed by some of the nation’s foremost experts in coastal processes, climate and sea-level rise science, observational and modeling science, the science of extremes, and decision-making under uncertainty. The report synthesized the current state of sea-level rise science, including advances in modeling and improved understanding of the processes that could drive extreme global sea-level rise as a result of ice loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. The report found that:
- Scientific understanding of sea-level rise is advancing at a rapid pace.
- The direction of sea-level change is clear; sea levels are rising.
- The rate of ice loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets is increasing, and California is particularly vulnerable to sea-level rise caused by ice loss from West Antarctica.
- New scientific evidence has highlighted the potential for extreme sea-level rise.
- Probabilities of specific sea-level increases can inform decisions.
- Current policy decisions are shaping our coastal future.
- Waiting for scientific certainty is neither a safe nor prudent option.
The increased understanding of sea-level rise projections and polar ice sheet loss warranted an update to the State’s sea-level rise guidance document to ensure decisions were based on the best available science. Additionally, an increased policy focus requiring state and local governments to incorporate climate change into decision making merited an update to address the needs of both state and local audiences.
This updated document, the “State of California Sea-Level Rise Guidance” (Guidance), provides a bold, science-based methodology for state and local governments to analyze and assess the risks associated with sea-level rise, and to incorporate sea-level rise into their planning, permitting, and investment decisions. This Guidance provides:
1. A synthesis of the best available science on sea- level rise projections and rates for California;
2. A step-by-step approach for state agencies and local governments to evaluate those projections and related hazard information in decision making; and
3. Preferred coastal adaptation approaches.
Keywords
climate change, flood management, land use, planning and management, risk assessment, sea level rise