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Water Year 2021 Compound Precipitation and Temperature Extremes in California and Nevada

Andrew Hoell, Xiao-Wei Quan, Martin Hoerling, Henry F. Diaz, Rong Fu, Cenlin He, Joel R. Lisonbee, Justin S. Mankin, Richard Seager, Amanda Sheffield, Isla R. Simpson, Eugene R. Wahl | December 23rd, 2022


The most intense 22-yr drought in the western United States since 800 CE (Williams et al. 2022) was extended by compound dry and hot extremes in Water Year 2021 (October 2020–September 2021). Compared to an instrumental record that dates to 1895, low precipitation (Fig. 1a) and high temperatures (Fig. 1b) were widespread across the western United States. The intense and prevalent drought has caused water delivery shortages (U.S. Bureau of Reclamation 2021), damaged ecosystems
(Wlostowski et al. 2022), and contributed to extreme wildfires (e.g., Fu et al. 2021; Gutierrez et al. 2021; Abolafia-Rosenzweig et al. 2022). California and Nevada (CA–NV) were once again at the epicenter of drought and heat in Water Year 2021 (California Department of Water Resources 2021). This was the first time since 1895 that precipitation fell below –1.5 standardized departures and temperatures exceeded 1.5 standardized departures concurrently for the two-state average (Fig. 1c). Precipitation and temperatures were individually extreme as well, as the former was the second lowest since 1895 and the latter was the second highest.

We examine whether the co-occurrence of anthropogenic climate change and La Niña, two principal climate drivers during Water Year 2021, altered the risk of unprecedented compound dry and hot extremes in CA–NV during Water Year 2021. Our assessment investigates the factors related to compound extremes that lead to heightened societal impacts compared to individual extreme events (e.g., AghaKouchak et al. 2020; Zscheischler et al. 2020; W. Zhang et al. 2021).

Keywords

climate change, drought, water supply