A regional high resolution AI weather model for the prediction of atmospheric rivers and extreme precipitation

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | December 12th, 2025

Accurate precipitation forecasting often relies on high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, which are essential for capturing fine-scale and nonlinear a

Accurate precipitation forecasting often relies on high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, which are essential for capturing fine-scale and nonlinear atmospheric dynamics. However, the computational demands of these models can be substantial. Leveraging recent advancements in artificial intelligence (AI), we present a stretched-grid AI-driven weather model with 6-km horizontal grid increments over the Western United States and ~31 km in other regions globally. The model employs an autoregressive framework to generate forecasts in minutes and is evaluated against global and regional NWP systems, as well as a lower-resolution AI model. Our results show that the regional AI model reduces 24-h accumulated precipitation errors, performs competitively with the regional NWP model, and effectively captures extreme precipitation events, particularly those linked to atmospheric rivers, which global coarser models often underestimate. This work underscores the potential of regional, high-resolution AI models for precipitation forecasting at km-scales, and discusses some of the challenges for future development.

City of Santa Barbara Wastewater and Water Systems Climate Adaptation Plan

City of Santa Barbara | December 9th, 2025

This Wastewater and Water Systems Climate Adaptation Plan evaluates impacts on the City's critical water and wastewater systems from hazards worsened by climate change. I

This Wastewater and Water Systems Climate Adaptation Plan evaluates impacts on the City's critical water and wastewater systems from hazards worsened by climate change. It is part of a broader City Adaptation and Resilience Program, which monitors changing conditions and adapts infrastructure in phases. Funded by the California Coastal Commission, Coastal Conservancy, and the City itself, the Plan satisfies state requirements and supports City Council’s goals to prepare for the effects of climate change.

Colorado River Insights, 2025: Dancing with Deadpool

Colorado River Research Group | December 3rd, 2025

The Colorado River Research Group (CRRG) was formed in 2014 to bring scientific insights to Colorado River system management, inspired in part by the salient role played

The Colorado River Research Group (CRRG) was formed in 2014 to bring scientific insights to Colorado River system management, inspired in part by the salient role played by the Wentworth Group of Concerned Scientists in the Murray-Darling Basin—a similar, drought-stricken region in Australia. It was established as an independent, knowledgeable voice insulated from political constraints, sectoral alliances, and other pressures that might impede the full consideration of relevant ideas and viewpoints. Originally, the CRRG was launched with ten members, all academics with long, well-established involvement in Colorado River scholarship. In 2021 the group was expanded to 14 active members, while four original CRRG members transitioned to emeritus status. CRRG members serve as individuals, rather than as representatives of their universities or other organizations. The administrative home of the CRRG is the Getches-Wilkinson Center at the University of Colorado.

FY 2023–2024 Delta Crosscut Budget Report: Transparency in Science and Restoration Funding

Delta Stewardship Council (Delta Council) | December 9th, 2025

How much money is currently being spent on Delta science and restoration? That question drives the analysis herein. State and federal agencies, along with public water ag

How much money is currently being spent on Delta science and restoration? That question drives the analysis herein. State and federal agencies, along with public water agencies, fund and implement science and restoration programs and activities across the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. For the past six years, the Delta Crosscut Budget Report has aimed to provide a comprehensive understanding of this funding.

Groundwater and Remotely Sensed Phenology Reveal Vulnerability of Riparian Trees to Drought

Wiley | October 27th, 2025

The increasing frequency and magnitude of climatic extremes are altering water availability in dryland ecosystems globally. However, riparian vulnerability to hydroclimat

The increasing frequency and magnitude of climatic extremes are altering water availability in dryland ecosystems globally. However, riparian vulnerability to hydroclimate whiplash remains poorly understood. Here, we examined how riparian willow, cottonwood, and valley oak trees respond to groundwater fluctuations and drought through their water use patterns and phenology. To this end, we combined time-series analysis of in situ, high-frequency groundwater monitoring with high-resolution PlanetScope satellite imagery of a drought-prone and relatively pristine watershed in California (Chalone Creek, Pinnacles National Park). We found that flow regime dictates the potential for trees to access groundwater, while the identity of tree species determines the timing and magnitude of their use. Machine-learning models revealed that at intermittent sites groundwater depth predominantly controlled vegetation greenness, represented by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). In contrast, variation in photoperiod length dominated at the perennial site where water was more reliably available. During the severe 2020–2022 drought, all species experienced reduced greenness, but phenological responses differed by flow regime. While the start of the season was delayed across all sites, trees at intermittent reaches exhibited a substantially earlier end of season during drought, resulting in growing seasons shortened by as much as 37 days. These phenological shifts vastly exceed those documented across aridity classifications in global datasets from satellite observations, ground-based monitoring networks, and experimental precipitation manipulations. Although riparian trees in drylands have been shaped by exposure to drought over evolutionary timescales, our findings show that trees in these intermittent systems may be operating close to critical groundwater thresholds, rendering them particularly vulnerable to increasingly long and severe droughts.

Dreher v. City of Los Angeles Department of Water and Power

California Courts, Judicial Branch of California | December 8th, 2025

Free Water While It Lasts: An Analysis of Wholesale Water Pricing in the Lower Colorado River Basin States

University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) | December 11th, 2025

The Colorado River is facing a shortage of between two million and four million acre-feet per year (MAFY), nearly one-third of its current annual flow and the equivalent

The Colorado River is facing a shortage of between two million and four million acre-feet per year (MAFY), nearly one-third of its current annual flow and the equivalent of the amount needed to supply up to 30 million people with water each year (Shutt, 2022). Following a century of declining flow and two decades of the worst drought in more than 1,200 years to grip the U.S. Southwest, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation is putting pressure on states that draw from the Colorado River to reduce water usage and create a long-term plan for responsible water management. But the price that agricultural and municipal water districts and utilities pay to divert federal water supplies in the western United States disincentivizes sustainable water practices and conservation efforts. In this paper, the UCLA Institute of the Environment and Sustainability (IoES) and the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) explored the current state of water pricing for surface water supplies across Arizona, California, and Nevada, the three states comprising the Lower Colorado River Basin. We demonstrate that the vast majority of water sourced through the federal government from the Colorado River and other federal projects is sold or supplied at prices that do not reflect the scarcity of the resource; we also identify significant disparities between large agricultural districts and municipal utilities in the price paid for water at the wholesale level.

Water Demand Projection Accuracy and Demand Management Trends in California Cities

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | November 21st, 2025

This study investigates the accuracy of long-term water demand projections and tracks the evolution of water demand management incentives across 61 California water suppl

This study investigates the accuracy of long-term water demand projections and tracks the evolution of water demand management incentives across 61 California water suppliers from 2000 to 2020. Through a systematic analysis of Urban Water Management Plans, we find that water suppliers consistently overestimated future demand by an average of 25% for 5-year projections and 74% for 20-year projections. This overestimation stems primarily from assumptions about per capita water demand rather than population growth estimates. While suppliers generally projected stable or increasing per capita demand, actual water demand per capita declined by 1.9% annually between 2000 and 2020, leading to a decoupling of water demand from population growth. Concurrently, we document a substantial increase in water demand management incentives, with non-voluntary regulations emerging as the dominant demand management approach by 2020, largely driven by state policies like the Model Water Efficient Landscape Ordinance and California Green Building Standards. Demand management efforts have evolved from primarily indoor and educational initiatives toward outdoor-focused non-voluntary regulations and rebates. This shift appears closely linked to the reduction in per capita demand that suppliers failed to fully capture in their water demand projections. Our findings underscore the importance of incorporating dynamic conservation trends into demand projections and suggest that suppliers should develop more sophisticated forecasting methods that account for the continuing evolution of water efficiency incentives. This research provides valuable insights for water resource planners seeking to improve the accuracy of water demand projections in an era of increasing conservation and climate uncertainty.

Coastal wetland deposition of cathode metals from the world’s largest lithium-ion battery fire

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | November 26th, 2025

Record of Decision, Trump Administration Action 5 Operations Plan for the Central Valley and State Water Projects, per Executive Order 14181

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) | December 4th, 2025

On January 24, 2025, President Donald J. Trump issued Executive Order 14181 “Emergency Measures To Provide Water Resources In California And Improve Disaster Response I

On January 24, 2025, President Donald J. Trump issued Executive Order 14181 “Emergency Measures To Provide Water Resources In California And Improve Disaster Response In Certain Areas.” A Presidential Memorandum titled “Putting People Over Fish” was signed four days before the Executive Order and references a reliable water supply, but the specific direction to the CVP is found in Executive Order 14181. Section 2 of Executive Order 14181 requires, among other measures, (c) The Secretary of the Interior, including through the Bureau of Reclamation, shall utilize his discretion to operate the CVP to deliver more water and produce additional hydropower, including by increasing storage and conveyance, and jointly operating federal and state facilities, to high­need communities, notwithstanding any contrary State or local laws. The Bureau of Reclamation shall take all available measures to ensure that State agencies — including the California Department of Water Resources — do not interfere with the Bureau of Reclamation’s operation of the project to maximize water delivery to high­need communities or otherwise, including but not limited to the issuance of a new Record of Decision maximizing water deliveries and consistent with the 2020 Record of Decision. Subsection (g) calls for a “proposed plan, for review by the Secretaries, to appropriately suspend, revise, or rescind any regulations or procedures that unduly burden such projects and are not necessary to protect the public interest or otherwise comply with the law.” This ROD implements initial actions in response to Executive Order 14181. Click here for the Reclamation Long Term Operations page,  here for response to the Trump Action 5 gambit from California Department of Water Resources, and here for the response from the State Water Resources Control Board