sea level rise

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A Rapid Assessment Method to Identify Potential Groundwater Flooding Hotspots as Sea Levels Rise in Coastal Cities

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A Rapid Assessment Method to Identify Potential Groundwater Flooding Hotspots as Sea Levels Rise in Coastal Cities
Water, Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI) | October 25, 2019...
Summary
Sea level rise (SLR) will cause shallow unconfined coastal aquifers to rise. Rising groundwater can emerge as surface flooding and impact buried infrastructure, soil...
Sea level rise (SLR) will cause shallow unconfined coastal aquifers to rise. Rising groundwater can emerge as surface flooding and impact buried infrastructure, soil behavior, human health, and nearshore ecosystems. Higher groundwater can also reduce infiltration rates for stormwater, adding to surface flooding problems. Levees and seawalls may not prevent these impacts. Pumping may accelerate land subsidence rates, thereby exacerbating flooding problems associated with SLR. Public agencies at all jurisdiction levels will need information regarding where groundwater impacts are likely to occur for development and infrastructure planning, as extreme precipitation events combine with SLR to drive more frequent flooding. We used empirical depth-to-water data and a digital elevation model of the San Francisco Bay Area to construct an interpolated surface of estimated minimum depth-to-water for 489 square kilometers along the San Francisco Bay shoreline. This rapid assessment approach identified key locations where more rigorous data collection and dynamic modeling is needed to identify risks and prevent impacts to health, buildings, and infrastructure, and develop adaptation strategies for SLR.

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An ongoing shift in Pacific Ocean sea level

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An ongoing shift in Pacific Ocean sea level
American Geophysical Union (AGU) | July 30, 2016...
Summary
Based on the satellite altimeter data, sea level off the west coast of the United States has increased over the past 5 years, while...
Based on the satellite altimeter data, sea level off the west coast of the United States has increased over the past 5 years, while sea level in the western tropical Pacific has declined. Understanding whether this is a short-term shift or the beginning of a longer-term change in sea level has important implications for coastal planning efforts in the coming decades. Here, we identify and quantify the recent shift in Pacific Ocean sea level, and also seek to describe the variability in a manner consistent with recent descriptions of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and particularly the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). More specifically, we extract two dominant modes of sea level variability, one related to the biennial oscillation associated with ENSO and the other representative of lower-frequency variability with a strong signal in the northern Pacific. We rely on cyclostationary empirical orthogonal function (CSEOF) analysis along with sea level reconstructions to describe these modes and provide historical context for the recent sea level changes observed in the Pacific. As a result, we find that a shift in sea level has occurred in the Pacific Ocean over the past few years that will likely persist in the coming years, leading to substantially higher sea level off the west coast of the United States and lower sea level in the western tropical Pacific.

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Analysis of the costs and benefits of using marsh restoration as a sea level rise adaptation strategy in San Francisco Bay
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Analysis of the costs and benefits of using marsh restoration as a sea level rise adaptation strategy in San Francisco Bay
The Bay Institute | February 22, 2013...
Summary
The purpose of this study is to examine opportunities to protect San Francisco Bay’s recovering tidal marsh ecosystems while helping bayshore communities to...
The purpose of this study is to examine opportunities to protect San Francisco Bay’s recovering tidal marsh ecosystems while helping bayshore communities to manage the impacts of sea level rise. Specifically, it considers the flood risk management functions that tidal marshes perform naturally and evaluates the possibility of integrating those functions into a co-beneficial shoreline management strategy. The study’s intended audience is planners, politicians, regulators, and other stakeholders with the authority to make or affect decisions that influence the configuration and use of the San Francisco Bay shoreline. The study examines the current functions of San Francisco Bay tidal marshes as well as existing flood risk management strategies. It considers how environmental conditions are likely to change in the era of climate change, and how we can adapt our marshes and our flood risk management practices to accommodate these changes.

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Assessing and communicating the impacts of climate change on the Southern California coast

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Assessing and communicating the impacts of climate change on the Southern California coast
California Natural Resources Agency | August 27, 2018...
Summary
Over the course of this and the next century, the combination of rising sea levels, severe storms, and coastal erosion will threaten the...
Over the course of this and the next century, the combination of rising sea levels, severe storms, and coastal erosion will threaten the sustainability of coastal communities, development, and ecosystems as we currently know them. To clearly identify coastal vulnerabilities and develop appropriate adaptation strategies for projected increased levels of coastal flooding and erosion, coastal managers need user-friendly planning tools based on the best available climate and coastal science. In anticipation of these climate change impacts, many communities are in the early stages of climate change adaptation planning but lack the scientific information and tools to adequately address the potential impacts. In collaboration with leading scientists worldwide, the USGS designed the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) to assess the coastal impacts of climate change for the California coast, including the combination of sea level rise, storms, and coastal change. In this project, we directly address the needs of coastal resource managers in Southern California by integrating a vast range of global climate change projections and translate that information using sophisticated physical process models into planning-scale physical, ecological, and economic exposure, shoreline change, and impact assessments, all delivered in two simple, user-friendly, online tools. Our results show that by the end of the 21st century, over 250,000 residents and nearly $40 billion in building value across Southern California could be exposed to coastal flooding from storms, sea level rise, and coastal change. Results for the other major population center in California (the greater San Francisco Bay Area) are also available but not explicitly discussed in this report. Together, CoSMoS has now assessed the exposure of 95% of the 26 million coastal residents of the State (17 million in Southern California)

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Building Ecological Resilience in Highly Modified Landscapes

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Building Ecological Resilience in Highly Modified Landscapes
BioScience | November 7, 2018...
Summary
Ecological resilience is a powerful heuristic for ecosystem management in the context of rapid environmental change. Significant efforts are underway to improve the...

Ecological resilience is a powerful heuristic for ecosystem management in the context of rapid environmental change. Significant efforts are underway to improve the resilience of biodiversity and ecological function to extreme events and directional change across all types of landscapes, from intact natural systems to highly modified landscapes such as cities and agricultural regions. However, identifying management strategies likely to promote ecological resilience remains a challenge. In this article, we present seven core dimensions to guide long-term and large-scale resilience planning in highly modified landscapes, with the objective of providing a structure and shared vocabulary for recognizing opportunities and actions likely to increase resilience across the whole landscape. We illustrate application of our approach to landscape-scale ecosystem management through case studies from two highly modified California landscapes, Silicon Valley and the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta. We propose that resilience-based management is best implemented at large spatial scales and through collaborative, cross-sector partnerships.

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California against the sea

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California against the sea
Los Angeles Times | July 7, 2019...
Summary
THE CALIFORNIA COAST GREW AND PROSPERED during a remarkable moment in history when the sea was at its tamest. But the mighty Pacific,...
THE CALIFORNIA COAST GREW AND PROSPERED during a remarkable moment in history when the sea was at its tamest.

But the mighty Pacific, unbeknownst to all, was nearing its final years of a calm but unusual cycle that had lulled dreaming settlers into a false sense of endless summer.

Elsewhere, Miami has been drowning, Louisiana shrinking, North Carolina’s beaches disappearing like a time lapse with no ending. While other regions grappled with destructive waves and rising seas, the West Coast for decades was spared by a rare confluence of favorable winds and cooler water. This “sea level rise suppression,” as scientists call it, went largely undetected. Blinded from the consequences of a warming planet, Californians kept building right to the water’s edge.

But lines in the sand are meant to shift. In the last 100 years, the sea rose less than 9 inches in California. By the end of this century, the surge could be greater than 9 feet.

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California’s Future
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California’s Future
Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) | January 18, 2018...
Summary
Water management in California has always been challenging. The state’s variable climate is marked by long droughts and severe floods, with stark regional...
Water management in California has always been challenging. The state’s variable climate is marked by long droughts and severe floods, with stark regional differences in water availability and demand. California has adapted by building a vast network of storage and conveyance facilities to deliver water from the wetter parts of the state to population and farming centers in the Bay Area, the San Joaquin Valley, and Southern California. The Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta is a fragile link in the state’s water supply network, and a plan to address supply reliability, known as California WaterFix, faces many hurdles. California’s extensive network of dams is aging. Agricultural demand is becoming less flexible, as farmers are increasing tree crops (especially nuts), which must be watered every year. Conflicts are growing between human water use and water needed to support fish and other wildlife. And the latest cycle of droughts and floods provides a glimpse of an uncertain future under climate change. California’s water management challenges are complex, but they can be addressed. Solutions will involve difficult and sometimes costly trade-offs, as well as contentious legal and political changes.

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California’s Coast and Ocean Summary Report

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California’s Coast and Ocean Summary Report
California Natural Resources Agency, California Energy Commission (CEC) | August 27, 2018...
Summary
This report synthesizes current scientific understanding about the impacts of climate change on California’s coast and ocean and presents a forward-looking summary of challenges...
This report synthesizes current scientific understanding about the impacts of climate change on California’s coast and ocean and presents a forward-looking summary of challenges and opportunities for the future. It is one component of California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment (Fourth Assessment). To prepare this report, the state called upon the California Ocean Protection Council (OPC) and California Ocean Science Trust (OST) to convene an Ocean Protection Council Science Advisory Team (OPC-SAT) working group composed of science and policy leaders. Similar to other components of the Fourth Assessment, the 12-member working group was guided by an Advisory Group of end users and high-level decision-makers.

This report is intended to provide accessible scientific information that is relevant for policy and decision-makers, build a foundation for policy to address climate change impacts through adaptation and mitigation, highlight best

practices and models for coastal adaptation to climate change along the coast, and inform interested members of the public on the impacts of climate change on California’s coast and ocean waters and potential approaches for adaptation and mitigation. It will also inform the next update of the Safeguarding California plan, a policy document serving as California’s climate adaptation strategy, by presenting a scientific grounding to help focus and prioritize future state adaptation efforts.

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Case Studies of Natural Shoreline Infrastructure in Coastal California: A Component of Identification of Natural Infrastructure Options for Adapting to Sea Level Rise

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Case Studies of Natural Shoreline Infrastructure in Coastal California: A Component of Identification of Natural Infrastructure Options for Adapting to Sea Level Rise
The Nature Conservancy | November 27, 2017...
Summary
Sea level rise and erosion are major threats to California’s coast, requiring solutions to preserve the many benefits a healthy coastline provides: flood...

Sea level rise and erosion are major threats to California’s coast, requiring solutions to preserve the many benefits a healthy coastline provides: flood protection, recreation, habitat for wildlife, water quality and more. Seawalls and other engineered structures, are commonly installed in order to hold the shoreline in place and hold back the ocean; however, they ultimately make the situation worse in most cases by increasing erosion and thus causing already vulnerable shorelines to shrink more. Natural shoreline infrastructure is an alternative that is more likely to preserve the benefits of coastal ecosystems while also maintaining coastal access. The California coastline is very diverse, and no single solution will address all the chal- lenges anticipated in the future. While there is a continuum of approaches to address sea level rise and coastal erosion— ranging from fully natural approaches that preserve or restore natural systems, hybrid solutions that integrate engineered aspects into restored or created natural features, and fully engineered structures like seawalls and revetments—prop- erty owners and managers don’t typically consider the entire range of options when making coastal management decisions.

To address the gap in familiarity with natural infrastructure and the lack of technical guidance to aid decision-makers and engineers in the appropriate application of different strategies for different situations, this report summarizes natural infrastructure projects for a range of settings in coastal California. Each case study covers the background, permitting, planning, implementation, performance, and key lessons learned from each project in order to provide the critical information needed to implement successful adaptation strategies to address coastal issues, and inspire other communities by highlighting the lessons learned.

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Chapter 12: Sea Level Rise, Climate Science Special Report, Fourth National Climate Assessment

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Chapter 12: Sea Level Rise, Climate Science Special Report, Fourth National Climate Assessment
U.S. Global Change Research Program | November 1, 2017...
Summary
Sea level rise is closely linked to increasing global temperatures. Thus, even as uncertainties remain about just how much sea level may rise this century, it...
Sea level rise is closely linked to increasing global temperatures. Thus, even as uncertainties remain about just how much sea level may rise this century, it is virtually certain that sea level rise this century and beyond will pose a growing challenge to coastal communities, infrastructure, and ecosystems from increased (permanent) inundation, more frequent and extreme coastal flooding, erosion of coastal landforms, and saltwater intrusion within coastal rivers and aquifers. Assessment of vulnerability to rising sea levels requires consideration of physical causes, historical evidence, and projections. A risk-based perspective on sea level rise points to the need for emphasis on how changing sea levels alter the coastal zone and interact with coastal flood risk at local scales.

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A Rapid Assessment Method to Identify Potential Groundwater Flooding Hotspots as Sea Levels Rise in Coastal Cities

A Rapid Assessment Method to Identify Potential Groundwater Flooding Hotspots as Sea Levels Rise in Coastal Cities

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An ongoing shift in Pacific Ocean sea level

An ongoing shift in Pacific Ocean sea level

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Analysis of the costs and benefits of using marsh restoration as a sea level rise adaptation strategy in San Francisco Bay

Analysis of the costs and benefits of using marsh restoration as a sea level rise adaptation strategy in San Francisco Bay

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Assessing and communicating the impacts of climate change on the Southern California coast

Assessing and communicating the impacts of climate change on the Southern California coast

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Building Ecological Resilience in Highly Modified Landscapes

Building Ecological Resilience in Highly Modified Landscapes

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California against the sea

California against the sea

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California’s Future

California’s Future

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California’s Coast and Ocean Summary Report

California’s Coast and Ocean Summary Report

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Case Studies of Natural Shoreline Infrastructure in Coastal California: A Component of Identification of Natural Infrastructure Options for Adapting to Sea Level Rise

Case Studies of Natural Shoreline Infrastructure in Coastal California: A Component of Identification of Natural Infrastructure Options for Adapting to Sea Level Rise

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Chapter 12: Sea Level Rise, Climate Science Special Report, Fourth National Climate Assessment

Chapter 12: Sea Level Rise, Climate Science Special Report, Fourth National Climate Assessment

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