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Climate Change Analysis for the Santa Ana River Watershed
$0.00Climate Change Analysis for the Santa Ana River Watershed
Bureau of Reclamation | September 24, 2013...SummaryThe Santa Ana Watershed Basin Study (Basin Study) is a collaborative effort by the Santa Ana Watershed Project Authority (SAWPA) and the Bureau...
The Santa Ana Watershed Basin Study (Basin Study) is a collaborative effort by the Santa Ana Watershed Project Authority (SAWPA) and the Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation), authorized under the Sustain and Manage America's Resources for Tomorrow SECURE Water Act (Title IX, Subtitle F of Public Law 111-11). The study began in 2011 and was completed in the spring of 2013. The Basin Study complements SAWPA’s Integrated Regional Water Management (IRWM) planning process, also known as the “One Water One Watershed” (OWOW) Plan, and refines the watershed’s water projections, and identifies potential adaptation strategies, in light of projected effects of climate change. This climate change analysis for the Santa Ana River Watershed (SARW) is a contributing section to the Basin Study.
This report explains the methods used to develop an analysis of potential implications of the changing climate, and how those implications might affect issues of importance to the Santa Ana River Watershed. Chapter 1 provides an introduction to the project and the study area, along with a summary of relevant previous studies. The development of climate projections and hydrology models used can be found in Chapter 2. Chapter 3 provides projections for water supply and demand in the SARW. An impact analysis was conducted focusing on key areas of importance to the SARW, the results of which can be found in Chapter 4. A tool to evaluate demand management is presented in Chapter 5, along with a case study of potential adaptation strategies. Chapter 6 addresses uncertainties in climate change analysis.
In light of climate change, prolonged drought conditions, growth, and population projections, a strong concern exists to ensure there will be adequate water supplies to meet future water demand. The findings of this Basin Study will be used to update the OWOW Plan, evaluate the implications of climate change, assess increased energy demand, and ensure that future water quality and supply needs are met.
Goals of the study include: incorporating existing regional and local planning studies within the watershed; sustaining the innovative “bottom up” approach to regional water resources management planning; ensuring an integrated, collaborative approach; using science and technology to assess climate change and greenhouse emissions effects; facilitating watershed adaptation planning; and expanding outreach to all major water uses and stakeholders.
Future water supply was analyzed for the Santa Ana River Watershed using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model (Liang et al., 1994; Liang et al., 1996; Nijssen et al., 1997) to project streamflow using 112 different projections of future climate. Projected climate variables, including daily precipitation, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and wind speed, came from the Bias Corrected and Spatially Downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (BCSD-CMIP3) archive.
Historical VIC model simulations over the period 1950-1999 were conducted using historical meteorological forcings (factors affecting the climate of the earth that drive or “force” the climate to change) developed by Maurer et al., (2002), and subsequent extensions. The VIC hydrologic model solves the water balance for each of a series of 1/8° by 1/8° (~12km x 12 km) grid cells, which represent the watershed. Daily climate projections span the time period January 1, 1950 to December 31, 2099 and exist for each grid cell. Grid based outputs of daily runoff and baseflow generated by the VIC hydrologic model are routed to select sites throughout the watershed to produce daily streamflow projections.
Through coordination with SAWPA and local water agencies, 36 key locations in the basin were determined, so that sub-basins could be delineated. Change factors were developed by calculating decade mean (reference decade – 1990s; three future decades – 2020s, 2050s, and 2070s) total precipitation and temperature, then calculating percent change, and finally calculating the median change for all the 112 projections. Final products include data sets at key locations for precipitation, temperature, evapotranspiration, April 1st Snow Water Equivalent (SWE), and streamflow.
These data sets were used to answer frequently asked questions regarding impacts of climate change on the Santa Ana River Watershed.
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Greenhouse Gas Emissions Calculator for the Water Sector: User’s Manual
$0.00Greenhouse Gas Emissions Calculator for the Water Sector: User’s Manual
Bureau of Reclamation | September 24, 2013...SummaryThe Santa Ana Watershed Basin Study (Basin Study) is a collaborative effort by the Santa Ana Watershed Project Authority (SAWPA) and the Bureau...
The Santa Ana Watershed Basin Study (Basin Study) is a collaborative effort by the Santa Ana Watershed Project Authority (SAWPA) and the Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation), authorized under the Sustain and Manage America's Resources for Tomorrow SECURE Water Act (Title IX, Subtitle F of Public Law 111-11).
The Basin Study complements SAWPA’s Integrated Regional Water Management (IRWM) planning process, also known as their “One Water One Watershed” (OWOW) Plan. It refines the watershed’s water projections, and identifies potential adaptation strategies, in light of projected effects of climate change. The Climate Change Analysis for the Santa Ana River Watershed (SARW) is a contributing section to the Basin Study.
The Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions Calculator was developed as a tool to support the Climate Change Analysis. It was developed to evaluate mitigation strategies, while the Climate Change Analysis focused primarily on adaption and vulnerability analysis. Development of the tool began in 2012 and was completed in August 2013.
This report explains the methods used to develop the calculator and provides instructions on how to use it by introducing examples. The examples focus on the SARW to show how to develop a GHG emissions baseline, evaluate what it would take to meet specific GHG emission reduction goals, and illustrate how the GHG Emissions Calculator can be used to analyze projects.
Chapter 1 provides an introduction to the project, a literature review, and a summary of California’s GHG legislation. The methods used in the GHG Emissions Calculator can be found in Chapter 2. A guide showing users what data is needed and how to enter that data can be found in Chapter 3. Chapter 4 provides an introduction to the SARW, the GHG emission baseline for the SARW, discusses varies scenarios to reduce GHG emissions, and compares those reduction scenarios. In Chapter 5 SAWPA’s 20 finalist for the Integrated Regional Water Management (IRWM) funding were analyzed using the GHG Emissions Calculator.
The GHG Emission Calculator is a decision-making tool that can be used to explore the links between water resources, energy, and GHG emissions. It can be used to determine water supply and energy demands for the study area, in addition to GHG emissions from 1990 to 2050. It can be used to analyze a study area ranging from a city block to an entire watershed, regardless of the level of detailed data available. The GHG Emissions calculator is a vital tool for decision makers when developing water supply plans for the future. It is also equipped to evaluate long term GHG emission reduction potential for new projects that will alter the water supply portfolio.
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