Eutrophication is one of the top three leading causes of impairments of the nation’s waters, with demonstrated links between anthropogenic changes in watersheds, increased nutrient loading to coastal waters, harmful algal blooms, hypoxia, and impacts on aquatic food webs.

These ecological impacts of eutrophication of coastal areas can have far-reaching consequences, including lowered fishery production, loss or degradation of seagrass and kelp beds, smothering of benthic organisms, nuisance odors, and impacts on human and marine mammal health. These modifications have significant economic and social costs. In California, the impacts of nutrient loading on estuaries and coastal waters have not been  wel lmonitored. Without management actions to reduce anthropogenic nutrient loads, symptoms are expected to develop or worsen in the majority of systems, due to projected population increases in coastal areas.

The purpose for this report is to outline a conceptual framework for the development of nutrient numeric endpoints (NNE) for estuaries and to highlight data gaps and research recommendations critical for their development. The purpose of NNEs for California estuaries is to provide a scientifically defensible framework that can serve as guidance for adopting regulatory numeric criteria. This framework is founded on an evaluation of risk relative to designated beneficial uses. The objective is to control excess nutrient loads to levels such that the risk of impairing the designated uses is minimized. If the nutrients present–regardless of actual magnitude–have a low probability of impairing uses, then water quality standards can be considered to be met.

The ultimate goal of this effort is to develop a set of tools that can be used to support the water quality programs of the California State Water Resources Control Board (SWRCB), Regional Water Quality Control Boards and the regulated community. To reach this goal, we envision the development of a set of estuarine NNE tools, including 1) a classification scheme that groups estuaries according to factors that control their biological response to nutrient loading, 2) risk-based indicators of biological response that can provide quantitative measures of the status of beneficial uses relative to nutrient loads; 3) thresholds that define beneficial use risk categories (BURCs), which provides a framework for regulatory decisions based on quantitative assessments of impairment; and 4) modeling tools that link biological response indicators to watershed nutrient loads. To develop a NNE toolkit for estuaries, the first step in this process was to provide a working framework and to identify key data gaps and research recommendations critical for NNE development.

The NNE conceptual framework for estuaries is based on previous work by the SWRCB and US EPA Region IX, which provided guidance for development of NNE in streams and lakes (TetraTech 2005). This framework is founded on the concept that biological response indicators are better suited to evaluate the risk of beneficial use impairment, rather than using pre-defined nutrient limits that may or may not result in mitigation of eutrophication for a particular water body. The advantage of the proposed approach is a more robust link to actual impairment of use, rather than an approach that relies on concentration data alone.

The California NNE framework for estuaries is based on three organizing principals:

• Biological response indicators provide a more direct risk-based linkage to beneficial uses than nutrient concentrations alone.
• A weight of evidence approach with multiple indicators will produce NNE with greater scientific validity.
• For many of the biological indicators associated with nutrients, no clear scientific consensus exists on a target threshold that results in impairment.