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Application of synthetic scenarios to address water resource concerns: A management-guided case study from the Upper Colorado River Basin

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Application of synthetic scenarios to address water resource concerns: A management-guided case study from the Upper Colorado River Basin
Climate Services, Elsevier B.V. | December 9, 2017...
Summary
Water managers are increasingly interested in better understanding and planning for projected resource impacts from climate change. In this management-guided study, we use a...
Water managers are increasingly interested in better understanding and planning for projected resource impacts from climate change. In this management-guided study, we use a very large suite of synthetic climate scenarios in a statistical modeling framework to simultaneously evaluate how (1) average temperature and precipitation changes, (2) initial basin conditions, and (3) temporal characteristics of the input climate data influence water year flow in the Upper Colorado River. The results here suggest that existing studies may underestimate the degree of uncertainty in future streamflow, particularly under moderate temperature and precipitation changes. However, we also find that the relative severity of future flow projections within a given climate scenario can be estimated with simple metrics that characterize the input climate data and basin conditions. These results suggest that simple testing, like the analyses presented in this paper, may be helpful in understanding differences between existing studies or in identifying specific conditions for physically based mechanistic modeling. Both options could reduce overall cost and improve the efficiency of conducting climate change impacts studies.

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Fill Mead First: a technical assessment

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Fill Mead First: a technical assessment
Utah State University | November 10, 2019...
Summary
The Fill Mead First (FMF) plan would establish Lake Mead reservoir as the primary water storage facility of the main-stem Colorado River and would...

The Fill Mead First (FMF) plan would establish Lake Mead reservoir as the primary water storage facility of the main-stem Colorado River and would relegate Lake Powell reservoir to a secondary water storage facility to be used only when Lake Mead is full. The objectives of the FMF plan are to re-expose some of Glen Canyon’s sandstone walls that are now inundated, begin the process of re-creating a riverine ecosystem in Glen Canyon, restore a more natural stream-flow, temperature, and sediment-supply regime of the Colorado River in the Grand Canyon ecosystem, and reduce system-wide water losses caused by evaporation and movement of reservoir water into ground-water storage. The FMF plan would be implemented in three phases. Phase I would involve lowering Lake Powell to the minimum elevation at which hydroelectricity can still be produced (called minimum power pool elevation): 3490 ft asl (feet above sea level). At this elevation, the water surface area of Lake Powell is approximately 77 mi2, which is 31% of the surface area when the reservoir is full. Phase II of the FMF plan would involve lowering Lake Powell to dead pool elevation (3370 ft asl), abandoning hydroelectricity generation, and releasing water only through the river outlets. The water surface area of Lake Powell at dead pool is approximately 32 mi2 and is 13% of the reservoir surface area when it is full. Implementation of Phase III would necessitate drilling new diversion tunnels around Glen Canyon Dam in order to eliminate all water storage at Lake Powell. In this paper, we summarize the FMF plan and identify critical details about the plan’s implementation that are presently unknown. We estimate changes in evaporation losses and ground-water storage that would occur if the FMF plan was implemented, based on review of existing data and published reports. We also discuss significant river-ecosystem issues that would arise if the plan was implemented.

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Investigating Runoff Efficiency in Upper Colorado River Streamflow Over Past Centuries

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Investigating Runoff Efficiency in Upper Colorado River Streamflow Over Past Centuries
American Geophysical Union (AGU) | January 5, 2018...
Summary
With increasing concerns about the impact of warming temperatures on water resources, more attention is being paid to the relationship between runoff and...

With increasing concerns about the impact of warming temperatures on water resources, more attention is being paid to the relationship between runoff and precipitation, or runoff efficiency. Temperature is a key influence on Colorado River runoff efficiency, and warming temperatures are projected to reduce runoff efficiency. Here, we investigate the nature of runoff efficiency in the upper Colorado River (UCRB) basin over the past 400 years, with a specific focus on major droughts and pluvials, and to contextualize the instrumental period. We first verify the feasibility of reconstructing runoff efficiency from tree‐ring data. The reconstruction is then used to evaluate variability in runoff efficiency over periods of high and low flow, and its correspondence to a reconstruction of late runoff season UCRB temperature variability. Results indicate that runoff efficiency has played a consistent role in modulating the relationship between precipitation and streamflow over past centuries, and that temperature has likely been the key control. While negative runoff efficiency is most common during dry periods, and positive runoff efficiency during wet years, there are some instances of positive runoff efficiency moderating the impact of precipitation deficits on streamflow. Compared to past centuries, the 20th century has experienced twice as many high flow years with negative runoff efficiency, likely due to warm temperatures. These results suggest warming temperatures will continue to reduce runoff efficiency in wet or dry years, and that future flows will be less than anticipated from precipitation due to warming temperatures.

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Missing Water: The Uses and Flows of Water in the Colorado River Delta Region
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Missing Water: The Uses and Flows of Water in the Colorado River Delta Region
Pacific Institute | September 1, 2001...
Summary
The Pacific Institute for Studies in Development, Environment, and Security is pleased to announce the release of Missing Water: The Uses and Flows of...
The Pacific Institute for Studies in Development, Environment, and Security is pleased to announce the release of Missing Water: The Uses and Flows of Water in the Colorado River Delta Region. This new study describes the fate of the millions of acre-feet of water diverted from the Colorado River at and below Imperial Dam, and the total inflows to and outflows from the Colorado River delta region more generally.

This study uses the classic hydrologic boundaries of the delta region described by Godfrey Sykes in 1937, encompassing some 3,325 square miles (8,611 square kilometers) in the states of Arizona, Baja California, California, and Sonora, including the Imperial, Mexicali, and San Luis valleys, Yuma Project lands, and the lower Coachella Valley. The study period examines the flows and uses of water in the years 1991-1998, divided into Flood and Non-Flood years to reflect the tremendous variability of mainstem Colorado River flows.

Missing Water compiles flow data along the mainstem and along diversions within the delta region, the first time such data has been compiled for the region as a whole. The study also report consumptive uses of water in the agricultural and urban sectors, and estimates such use by the environment. Agricultural use is also reported for the major crops in the region, both by acreage and by water use.

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Multi-century reconstructions of temperature, precipitation, and runoff efficiency for the Upper Colorado River Basin

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Multi-century reconstructions of temperature, precipitation, and runoff efficiency for the Upper Colorado River Basin
U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | January 27, 2017...
Summary
With increasing concerns about the impact of warming temperatures on water resources, more attention is being paid the relationship between runoff and precipitation,...

With increasing concerns about the impact of warming temperatures on water resources, more attention is being paid the relationship between runoff and precipitation, or runoff efficiency. Temperature is a key influence on Colorado River runoff efficiency, and warming temperatures are projected to reduce runoff efficiency. Here, we investigate the nature of runoff efficiency in the upper Colorado River (UCRB) basin over the past 400 years, with a specific focus on major droughts and pluvials, and to contextualize the instrumental period. We first verify the feasibility of reconstructing runoff efficiency from tree-ring data. The reconstruction is then used to evaluate variability in runoff efficiency over periods of high and low flow, and its correspondence to a reconstruction of late runoff season UCRB temperature variability. Results indicate that runoff efficiency has played a consistent role in modulating the relationship between precipitation and streamflow over past centuries, and that temperature has likely been the key control. While negative runoff efficiency is most common during dry periods, and positive runoff efficiency during wet years, there are some instances of positive runoff efficiency moderating the impact of precipitation deficits on streamflow. Compared to past centuries, the 20th century has experienced twice as many high flow years with negative runoff efficiency, likely due to warm temperatures. These results suggest warming temperatures will continue to impact runoff efficiency in wet or dry years, and that future flows will be less than anticipated from precipitation due to warming temperatures.

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The twenty‐first century Colorado River hot drought and implications for the future

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The twenty‐first century Colorado River hot drought and implications for the future
American Geophysical Union (AGU) | February 17, 2017...
Summary
Between 2000 and 2014, annual Colorado River flows averaged 19% below the 1906–1999 average, the worst 15‐year drought on record. At least one‐sixth...
Between 2000 and 2014, annual Colorado River flows averaged 19% below the 1906–1999 average, the worst 15‐year drought on record. At least one‐sixth to one‐half (average at one‐third) of this loss is due to unprecedented temperatures (0.9°C above the 1906–1999 average), confirming model‐based analysis that continued warming will likely further reduce flows. Whereas it is virtually certain that warming will continue with additional emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, there has been no observed trend toward greater precipitation in the Colorado Basin, nor are climate models in agreement that there should be a trend. Moreover, there is a significant risk of decadal and multidecadal drought in the coming century, indicating that any increase in mean precipitation will likely be offset during periods of prolonged drought. Recently published estimates of Colorado River flow sensitivity to temperature combined with a large number of recent climate model‐based temperature projections indicate that continued business‐as‐usual warming will drive temperature‐induced declines in river flow, conservatively −20% by midcentury and −35% by end‐century, with support for losses exceeding −30% at midcentury and −55% at end‐century. Precipitation increases may moderate these declines somewhat, but to date no such increases are evident and there is no model agreement on future precipitation changes. These results, combined with the increasing likelihood of prolonged drought in the river basin, suggest that future climate change impacts on the Colorado River flows will be much more serious than currently assumed, especially if substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions do not occur.

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U.S.-Mexican Water Sharing: Background and Recent Developments
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U.S.-Mexican Water Sharing: Background and Recent Developments
Congressional Research Service | March 2, 2017...
Summary
The United States and Mexico share the waters of the Colorado River and Rio Grande pursuant to binational agreements. Increasing water demands and...
The United States and Mexico share the waters of the Colorado River and Rio Grande pursuant to binational agreements. Increasing water demands and reduced supplies deriving from drought and air temperatures increase the challenges and significance of reliable water sharing.

The International Boundary and Water Commission (IBWC) is charged with addressing issues that arise during application of binational water treaties. The IBWC is a binational entity with a U.S. Section that operates under foreign policy guidance from the U.S. Department of State. Under the binational 1944 Water Treaty, disputes and new developments can be resolved through agreed-upon interpretations of the treaty, called minutes.

Mexican-U.S. relations generally grew closer during the George W. Bush and Obama Administrations. Water sharing was addressed through IBWC technical meetings and bilateral talks between government officials; these meetings and talks were the primary forum for addressing treaty compliance and frustrations of water users in Texas with Mexico’s water delivery regime. Treaty minutes were used to enhance bilateral cooperation and provide flexibility in how treaty compliance was accomplished.

It remains uncertain what principles will guide and what mechanisms will be used during the Trump Administration to address water conflicts and what role enhanced cooperation (e.g., measures similar to recent binational efforts in the Colorado River basin) may play in U.S.-Mexican water sharing.

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Understanding Uncertainties in Future Colorado River Streamflow

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Understanding Uncertainties in Future Colorado River Streamflow
American Meteorological Society (AMS) | January 1, 2014...
Summary
The Colorado River is the primary water source for more than 30 million people in the United States and Mexico. Recent studies that...
The Colorado River is the primary water source for more than 30 million people in the United States and Mexico. Recent studies that project streamf low changes in the Colorado River all project annual declines, but the magnitude of the projected decreases range from less than 10% to 45% by the mid-twenty-first century. To understand these differences, we address the questions the management community has raised: Why is there such a wide range of projections of impacts of future climate change on Colorado River streamflow, and how should this uncertainty be interpreted? We identify four major sources of disparities among studies that arise from both methodological and model differences. In order of importance, these are differences in 1) the global climate models (GCMs) and emission scenarios used; 2) the ability of land surface and atmospheric models to simulate properly the high-elevation runoff source areas; 3) the sensitivities of land surface hydrology models to precipitation and temperature changes; and 4) the methods used to statistically downscale GCM scenarios. In accounting for these differences, there is substantial evidence across studies that future Colorado River streamflow will be reduced under the current trajectories of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions because of a combination of strong temperature-induced runoff curtailment and reduced annual precipitation. Reconstructions of preinstrumental streamflows provide additional insights; the greatest risk to Colorado River streamf lows is a multidecadal drought, like that observed in paleoreconstructions, exacerbated by a steady reduction in flows due to climate change. This could result in decades of sustained streamflows much lower than have been observed in the ~100 years of instrumental record.

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Application of synthetic scenarios to address water resource concerns: A management-guided case study from the Upper Colorado River Basin

Application of synthetic scenarios to address water resource concerns: A management-guided case study from the Upper Colorado River Basin

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Fill Mead First: a technical assessment

Fill Mead First: a technical assessment

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Investigating Runoff Efficiency in Upper Colorado River Streamflow Over Past Centuries

Investigating Runoff Efficiency in Upper Colorado River Streamflow Over Past Centuries

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Missing Water: The Uses and Flows of Water in the Colorado River Delta Region

Missing Water: The Uses and Flows of Water in the Colorado River Delta Region

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Multi-century reconstructions of temperature, precipitation, and runoff efficiency for the Upper Colorado River Basin

Multi-century reconstructions of temperature, precipitation, and runoff efficiency for the Upper Colorado River Basin

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The twenty‐first century Colorado River hot drought and implications for the future

The twenty‐first century Colorado River hot drought and implications for the future

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U.S.-Mexican Water Sharing: Background and Recent Developments

U.S.-Mexican Water Sharing: Background and Recent Developments

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Understanding Uncertainties in Future Colorado River Streamflow

Understanding Uncertainties in Future Colorado River Streamflow

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