Colorado River

2023 Drinking Water Needs Assessment

California State Water Resources Control Board (SWRCB) | April 30th, 2023

The Needs Assessment is comprised of four core components: the Failing Water System List (Failing list), the Risk Assessment, the Cost Assessment, and the Affordability A

The Needs Assessment is comprised of four core components: the Failing Water System List (Failing list), the Risk Assessment, the Cost Assessment, and the Affordability Assessment. Public input that the State Water Board received via workshops held in 2022 and February 2023 helped improve the 2023 Needs Assessment.

2023 Water Resilience Portfolio Progress Report

California Natural Resources Agency (CNRA) | October 31st, 2023

2024 Annual Water Supply and Demand Assessment Summary Report

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | October 1st, 2024

This report summarizes the Department of Water Resources’ (DWR’s) review of Urban Water Suppliers’ Annual Water Shortage Assessment Reports (Annual Shortage Reports

This report summarizes the Department of Water Resources’ (DWR’s) review of Urban Water Suppliers’ Annual Water Shortage Assessment Reports (Annual Shortage Reports) for the State Water Resources Control Board (State Water Board). As directed by the California Water Code (CWC) §10644(c)(1)(B), this summary report includes water shortage information at the supplier level, as well as regional and statewide analyses of water supply conditions.

21st century California drought risk linked to model fidelity of the El Niño teleconnection

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | September 3rd, 2018

Greenhouse gas-induced climate change is expected to lead to negative hydrological impacts for southwestern North America, including California (CA). This includes a decr

Greenhouse gas-induced climate change is expected to lead to negative hydrological impacts for southwestern North America, including California (CA). This includes a decrease in the amount and frequency of precipitation, reductions in Sierra snow pack, and an increase in evapotranspiration, all of which imply a decline in surface water availability, and an increase in drought and stress on water resources. However, a recent study showed the importance of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) warming and an El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like teleconnection in driving an increase in CA precipitation through the 21st century, particularly during winter (DJF). Here, we extend this prior work and show wetter (drier) CA conditions, based on several drought metrics, are associated with an El Niño (La Niña)-like SST pattern. Models that better simulate the observed ENSO-CA precipitation teleconnection also better simulate the ENSO-CA drought relationships, and yield negligible change in the risk of 21st century CA drought, primarily due to wetting during winter. Seasonally, however, CA drought risk is projected to increase during the non-winter months, particularly in the models that poorly simulate the observed teleconnection. Thus, future projections of CA drought are dependent on model fidelity of the El Niño teleconnection. As opposed to focusing on adapting to less water, models that better simulate the teleconnection imply adaptation measures focused on smoothing seasonal differences for affected agricultural, terrestrial, and aquatic systems, as well as effectively capturing enhanced winter runoff.

A 350,000-year history of groundwater recharge in the southern Great Basin, USA

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | March 31st, 2023

Estimating groundwater recharge under various climate conditions is important for predicting future freshwater availability. This is especially true for the water-limited

Estimating groundwater recharge under various climate conditions is important for predicting future freshwater availability. This is especially true for the water-limited region of the southern Great Basin, USA. To investigate the response of groundwater recharge to different climate states, we calculate the paleo recharge to a groundwater basin in southern Nevada over the last 350,000 years. Our approach combines a groundwater model with paleo-water-table data from Devils Hole cave. The minimum water-table during peak interglacial conditions was more than 1.6 m below modern levels, representing a recharge decline of less than 17% from present-day conditions. During peak glacial conditions, the water-table elevation was at least 9.5 m above modern levels, representing a recharge increase of more than 233–244% compared to present-day conditions. The elevation of the Devils Hole water-table is 3–4 times more sensitive to groundwater recharge during dry interglacial periods, compared to wet glacial periods. This study can serve as a benchmark for understanding long-term effects of past and future climate change on groundwater resources.

A Field Guide to the Identification of the Ordinary High Water Mark (OHWM) in the Arid West Region of the Western United States: A Delineation Manual

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) | August 1st, 2008

The Ordinary High Water Mark (OHWM) is an approach for identifying the lateral limits of non-wetland waters. However, determining whether any non-wetland water is

The Ordinary High Water Mark (OHWM) is an approach for identifying the lateral limits of non-wetland waters. However, determining whether any non-wetland water is a jurisdictional “Water of the United States” (WoUS) involves further assessment in accordance with the regulations, case law, and clarifying guidance. In the Arid West region of the U.S., the most problematic Ordinary High Water (OHW) delineations are associated with the ephemeral/intermittent channel forms that dominate the Arid West landscape. This report presents a method for delineating the lateral extent of the non-wetland waters in the Arid West using stream geomorphology and vegetation response to the dominant stream discharge.

A global poleward shift of atmospheric rivers

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) | October 11th, 2024

A holistic stochastic model for precipitation events

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | February 7th, 2025

In the western United States, much of the annual precipitation falls during relatively few storm events. When precipitation is measured as daily (or hourly, etc.) accumul

In the western United States, much of the annual precipitation falls during relatively few storm events. When precipitation is measured as daily (or hourly, etc.) accumulations, these events appear as sequences of various durations. We describe a trivariate probability distribution and assert that it provides a natural description for the durations, magnitudes, and maximum intensities of such events. We show that this distribution, in its most straightforward application, indeed describes precipitation events composed of daily observations at most long-term weather stations across the western United States, allowing for a flexible assessment of specific event probabilities and return periods with respect to their three defining components. This characterization opens the door to further understanding of risk associated with out-of-sample meteorological events.

A Literature Review and Hypsometric Analysis to Support Decisions on Trout Management Flows on the Colorado River Downstream from Glen Canyon Dam

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | August 7th, 2024

Fish stranding has been studied in select rivers worldwide, often with the purpose of determining how to mitigate adverse effects of dam operations on highly valued salmo

Fish stranding has been studied in select rivers worldwide, often with the purpose of determining how to mitigate adverse effects of dam operations on highly valued salmon and trout populations. However, where a reduction in trout population size is desired by resource managers, as is the case downstream of the Glen Canyon Dam on the Colorado River, flow manipulations termed trout management flows (TMFs) may be used to optimize fish stranding and mortality. To inform the design and implementation of potential future TMFs, we reviewed relevant literature to identify key factors that influence fish stranding. We found that key factors were highly interdependent and site-specific, but general trends suggest that down-ramping (decreasing flow) at rapid rates in daytime during the late spring to summer emergence period would lead to stranding of age-0 rainbow trout in shallow shoreline habitat. A hypsometric analysis was then used to predict stranding risk for age-0 rainbow trout in Glen Canyon for a range of TMFs, which incorporated existing bathymetric data and flow and habitat suitability models. Our results indicate that a TMF with a steady high flow ranging from 12,000 to 16,000 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) combined with a minimum flow ranging from 3,000 to 5,000 ft3/s may effectively strand age-0 fish while also minimizing risk to water storage in Lake Powell and other resources. This strategy implemented under normal hydropeaking operations was predicted to lead to a substantive stranding risk when paired with low flows of 5,000 ft3/s, and especially 3,000 ft3/s. However, there remains uncertainty associated with elements of implementing an effective TMF downstream from Glen Canyon Dam. The main uncertainties include (1) the down-ramp rate that maximizes stranding of age-0 trout, (2) the duration of drawdown to maximize stranding mortality while minimizing impact to downstream resources, (3) duration of high flows required for age-0 fish to colonize newly created shoreline habitat (this is only for certain TMF hydrographs), (4) number of repetitions of TMF cycles to minimize compensatory survival response, and (5) recruitment threshold of both rainbow and brown trout populations to trigger TMF implementation.

A Machine Learning Approach to Predict Groundwater Levels in California Reveals Ecosystems at Risk

Frontiers in Earth Science (Frontiers) | December 17th, 2021

Groundwater dependent ecosystems (GDEs) are increasingly threatened worldwide, but the shallow groundwater resources that they are reliant upon are seldom monitored. In t

Groundwater dependent ecosystems (GDEs) are increasingly threatened worldwide, but the shallow groundwater resources that they are reliant upon are seldom monitored. In this study, we used satellite-based remote sensing to predict groundwater levels under groundwater dependent ecosystems across California, USA. Depth to groundwater was modelled for a 35-years period (1985–2019) within all groundwater dependent ecosystems across the state (n = 95,135). Our model was developed within Google Earth Engine using Landsat satellite imagery, climate data, and field-based groundwater data [n = 627 shallow (< 30 m) monitoring wells] as predictors in a Random Forest model. Our findings show that 1) 44% of groundwater dependent ecosystems have experienced a significant long-term (1985–2019) decline in groundwater levels compared to 28% with a significant increase; 2) groundwater level declines have intensified during the most recent two decades, with 39% of groundwater dependent ecosystems experiencing declines in the 2003–2019 period compared to 27% in the 1985–2002 period; and 3) groundwater declines are most prevalent within GDEs existing in areas of the state where sustainable groundwater management is absent. Our results indicate that declining shallow groundwater levels may be adversely impacting California’s groundwater dependent ecosystems. Particularly where groundwater levels have fallen beneath plant roots or streams thereby affecting key life processes, such as forest recruitment/succession, or hydrological processes, such as streamflow that affects aquatic habitat. In the absence of groundwater monitoring well data, our model and findings can be used to help state and local water agencies fill in data gaps of shallow groundwater conditions, evaluate potential effects on GDEs, and improve sustainable groundwater management policy in California.