System Reoperation Study, Phase 2: Appendix A: Forecast-Based Operations Analysis
MBK Engineers (MBK) | January 29th, 2014
The System Reoperation Study (“Reoperation Study”) is investigating changes in operations and other strategies that may result in improved system performance in terms of additional water supply, flood hazard reduction, and ecosystem protection and restoration. It is recognized that existing reservoir operations are typically based on meeting all or some of these three objectives. As such, the Reoperation Study focuses on modifications to existing operations and expansion of these benefits.
The Reoperation Study team has developed several reoperation components to evaluate at select river/reservoir systems to quantify benefits and improve understanding of the trade-offs involved.
MBK Engineers is providing technical, strategic, and coordination support for the Reoperation Study. An analysis of Forecast-Based Operation (F-BO) is part of that support. The following report summarizes this effort.
F-BO can be applied to any reservoir with a traditional water supply and flood control space allocation paradigm. The incorporation of weather forecasts allows for greater flexibility in the management of the reservoir’s space (flood control versus conservation) and inherently increases the opportunities for gaining additional water supply and flood control benefits through its implementation.
System reoperation is informed by historical flood patterns and utilizes records of inflow, outflow, and storage in the reservoirs to develop modified rules for flood releases. Changes to historical operations of the reservoirs is expected to reveal potential for additional water supply storage. With improvements to many of the reservoir facilities, such as increased release capacity, operations are no longer required to be as conservative as they once were. By reducing outflow and allowing an increase in water storage, significant improvements in water supply can be achieved. However, care must be taken so that sufficient water can still be evacuated in the event of a significant forecasted flood.
RELATED DOCUMENTS:
System Reoperation Study, Phase 1: Plan of Study
System Reoperation Study, Phase 2: Strategy Formulation and Refinement
System Reoperation Study, Phase 2: Appendix A: Forecast?Based Operations Analysis
System Reoperation Study, Phase 2: Appendix B: Tradeoff Analysis
System Reoperation Study, Phase 3 Report: Assessment of Reoperation Strategies
System Reoperation, Phase 3 Appendix D: Ecosystem Evaluation
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