San Francisco Bay Interim Model Validation Report

As part of the Nutrient Management Strategy, a coupled hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model of San Francisco Bay is being developed. The process-based, numerical model will be used to inform nutrient management decisions, by:

• improving quantitative understanding of processes that shape current conditions,

• forecasting ecosystem response under future scenarios, and

• evaluating potential effectiveness of management actions.

This report describes the model in its present configuration and the status of its validation. Model development is necessarily an iterative process, with early stages focused on refining the model’s representation of hydrodynamics and transport, and later stages of the effort including increasingly complex representations of biogeochemistry. Present validation efforts focus on assessing model skill with respect to hydrodynamics, salinity and transport. The final report will additionally consider model validation of water quality and biogeochemical processes.